印刷電路板股價與經營績效相關性個案研究

Abstract

中文摘要 我國的印刷電路板工業發展始於六十年代後期，三十餘年來已完成上下游及相關產業的整合，於桃園、新竹一帶形成電路板生產專業區，不僅提昇了整體產業的實力，也使得上游原物料及相關設備與代工資源之供應不虞匱乏，目前已成為國內三大重要電子工業之一。 有鑒於股票市場乃為經濟之櫥窗，個別公司之股價亦為公司未來發展優劣之參考，進而展現在別公司的經營績效指標，然股價亦可以透過人為方式做不當操作，使股價產生失真狀況，進而使投資人對未來公司的營運績效的誤判。有基於此，本研究希望透過了解PCB上下游相關廠商其股價和經營績效前後期是否呈現正相關，因而研究的第一部份著重於股價與經營績效的相關性分析，第二部份則是希望藉由上下游公司的股價連動度去找出未來股價或經營績效可能有好成績的公司，讓無法於股價上賺取價差的一般投資人亦可以長線的眼光投資該公司股票。

Abstract The development of printed circuit board (hereafter PCB) industry in Taiwan, which began in the late sixties, has completed on the integration of downstream industry and related industries more than thirty years. At the meantime, the formation of a specialized area of PCB production in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, not only enhances the strength of the industry as a whole, but also makes the supplies of upstream raw materials, related equipment and Original Equipment Manufacturing without lacking, so that one of three most important electronics industry in Taiwan has been established. In view of the stock market is the window of the economy, the individual's stock price can reflect the strengths and weaknesses of the company’s future development, and indicate the company's future operating performance. However, stock prices can also be improperly manipulated to create incorrect information so that the company's future operating performance will be mistakenly valued. By virtue of this, my study is to explore the correlation between the PCB downstream firm’s stock price and its pre-and post operating performance, hoping to get positive correlation. The first part of the study focuses on the analysis of stock price and operating performance. The second part, adopting the first part’s result, is trying to use upstream and downstream companies’ stock price correlations to evaluate the candidate company’s future stock price or to figure out its future operating performance so that we can find out worthy investing companies. If the study can generate good prediction, any non-professional investor can apply it to make good investment on good companies.