再生能源時空序列下土地最佳使用配置

Abstract

隨著溫室效應的惡化，國際上為了因應碳排減量，在能源供應方面主要朝向以再生能源發電方式為發展目標，但是相較以化石燃料或是核能等現行主流能源供幾方式，再生能源在單位發電所需土地皆高出許多，再加上人口不斷上升造成生活、產食用地需求增加，在土地有限的情況下，尤其是台灣地狹人稠的地理條件，再生能源在土地使用上的分配便成為至關重要的議題。 本研究將再生能源的討論著重於較普遍的太陽能、風能、生質能，參考國際上能源相關政策，並依據我國現行再生能源法規、非核家園政策，參考未來能源發展情境的假設，搭配不同區域的產能環境因子，並以土地產能強度作為再生能源選擇排序標準，求得在沒有核能供應情況下，未來在相關政策的目標年，再生能源在最佳分配情況下所能夠產生最大的能源供應量，並以空間分析軟體產出其在各區域空間分布情形。產出結果在未來將可提供給能源以及土地規劃相關單位參考使用，同時可供相關模擬系統對模擬數值進行修正，以獲得更貼近現況之分析。

As the greenhouse effect is worsening, many counties transform their energy supply structure to promote renewable energy in order to reduce carbon emissions. Compared with fossil energy and nuclear power, renewable energy needs much more land to produce energy. Moreover, the increasing of population puts pressure on land utilization. The situation is severe especially in places with high population density. Therefore, the land allocation of renewable energy becomes an important issue. This study aims to identify an optimal spatial allocation of solar energy, wind energy and bioenergy based on energy development scenario in the future and different environmental factors of power generation. We refer to the international policy of energy, Renewable Energy Development Act and 2025 Nuclear-Free Policy in Taiwan during our simulation. We use the energy intensity of land as selection criteria of renewable energy and calculate the maximum energy output under optimal allocation without nuclear power in the future target year of related policies. In addition, we provide the shape file data from spatial analysis software to demonstrate the allocation of different renewable energy where it generates the maximum energy output. The result can serve as reference to departments of Energy and Land utilization planning. Furthermore, it can be used to revise the simulation results of related models to achieve more appropriate analysis.