以引力模型分析貿易協議及可耕地 對尼加拉瓜農業出口之影響

Abstract

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This study, through the implementation of a gravity model, attempts to analyze the impacts of the existence of trade agreements and importers’ arable land on Nicaraguan agricultural exports in order to provide insights for policymakers. Using a panel data that covers data from 1995 to 2018 among 27 partner countries, the results suggest that Nicaragua's agricultural exports are positively related to the national GDP and the importing country GDP, as well as to subscribed trade agreements, in particular the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA). The specific ex-post analysis of the DR-CAFTA over the agricultural exports indicate, this free trade agreement means trade creation for the country and has generated an increase of agricultural exports by more than 50% since its execution. On the other hand, the estimates also suggest that there is a negative correlation between the agricultural exports and the geographical distance, as well as the size of the arable land in the importing country. Given the findings of this study, there is strong evidence of the key role the trade agreements in special the DR-CAFTA plays to lead the expansion of the Nicaraguan agricultural exports. Therefore, this thesis tries to serve as a reference for policy-makers, in order they can articulate appropriated trade policies that allow a greater use of the benefits generated by these trade agreements, as a strategy to boost export competitiveness and the integrated economic development in the country.