台灣畜牧業投入產出分析

Abstract

歷年統計資料顯示初級畜牧業部門產值與GDP分別約占台灣初級農業總產值與總GDP之31.94%和11.13%；另一方面，雖然初級畜牧業在對我國經濟整體貢獻度僅為0.15-0.25%，但是若由畜牧業與其上游之生產資材製造業及下游之食品加工、運銷業有很大關聯性的角度來看，畜牧業對我國整體農業以及整體經濟的貢獻度應不只如此，惟我國目前文獻少有著墨。有鑑於此，本研究利用投入產出分析法，分別以畜牧業之產業關聯型態、三種乘數效果及畜牧業與相關產業附加價值的貢獻度等面向，探討我國畜牧業的重要性，估算結果顯示，初級畜牧業在產業關聯型態方面感應度、影響度分別為0.9267、1.4569，屬於火車頭產業，本身易帶動其他產業起飛，但較不易受其他產業影響；在乘數方面，本研究估算了兩類型的乘數，分別為家計部門外生與內生的情形，其中，所得乘數不管在內生或外生的情形下，皆在所有國內產業中排名第一，其生產乘數也居於一、二名；在附加價值方面，首先，在整體農業方面，於2006-2011年間畜牧業及相關產業之附加價值對整體農業GDP的貢獻度為24.14-26.08%，其次，在整體經濟方面，於2006-2011年間畜牧業及相關產業之附加價值對整體經濟貢獻度為2.74-3.02%，皆比當初僅以初級畜牧業的GDP來看時大上許多。由此，顯示畜牧業透過產業關聯效益對整體農業與整體經濟之貢獻度不容忽視。期許透過本研究能對於畜牧業有現階段之瞭解，以幫助相關產業或政府建構長期畜牧業發展規畫。

According to the statistics, the primary agriculture production value and agriculture GDP of livestock sector in Taiwan was 31.94% and 11.13%, respectively. The value of primary livestock sector accounted for 0.15%- 0.25% of GDP in Taiwan. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industries, the contribution of livestock sector was undervalued. However, there were few literatures in this field. This paper analyzes the backward linkage effect, forward linkage effect, three types of multiplier effects and the added value of the livestock sector by using input-output analysis. The results show that the estimated index of forward linkage is 0.9267 and index of backward linkage is 1.4569. We can refer that livestock sector is a leading industry which easily pushes forward other industries but hardly effected by other industries. This study also estimates the multipliers under exogenous and endogenous household circumstances. The income multiplier in livestocksector ranks first under both circumstances; the production multiplier ranks first under exogenous circumstances and second under endogenous circumstances. In terms of added value, the livestock sector and related industries contribute to 24.14-26.08% of the agriculture GDP and 2.74-3.02% of overall GDP during 2006-2011. The added values are both higher than the GDP percentages of primary livestock sector mentioned at the beginning. The contributions of livestock sector are obvious according to input-output analysis. To sum up, the results indicate the importance of livestock sector and agriculture development in Taiwan.