辛亥革命對股市的影響

Abstract

本研究跨歷史與金融領域，以金融史的角度帶領讀者進入距今一百多年前的上海，使讀者了解清末上海的股票市場狀況與列強瓜分之市場氛圍，最後在內憂外患下如何導致清王朝的滅亡，從西元1910年以前的橡膠股票泡沫破裂，併同八國聯軍後庚子賠款的財政負擔，造成四川保路運動興起與辛亥革命的成功。 本文對1910到1914年之上海上市交易股票進行事件分析法研究，檢定辛亥革命對於清末上海股市是否顯著為負面影響，事件分析法檢定後發現辛亥革命之事件對於橡膠類股票並無顯著的負面影響，故本研究進一步以面板數據分析方法探究橡膠類股票經歷了風潮泡沫與清王朝滅亡之辛亥革命後卻無顯著的負累積報酬率之原因，面板數據分析與史料研究結果發現，經歷辛亥革命後倒閉之橡膠公司大部分為原本就經營不善的公司，而留下來的橡膠公司為了增加投資人信心，紛紛利用高額的現金股利吸引投資者繼續投資，因此面板數據分析實證結果顯示股利對於公司股價有顯著正面影響，支持史料所述情況。

This is a Cross-Disciplinary thesis that combines History and Finance field. It brings readers to go back to Shanghai a hundred years from now and lets readers to understand more about the stock market and the nervous atmosphere between foreign invaders and native citizens in Shanghai. This study uncovers how the rubber stock bubble and wars as well lead to the downfall of Qing Dynasty in the end. This thesis undertakes event study method to do a research on Shanghai stock market in 1910 to 1914. This event study tests whether Xinhai Revolution significantly and negatively influenced the rubber stocks. The outcome of event study reveals Xinhai Revolution insignificantly had negative impact on the rubber stocks. So this thesis further uses panel data analysis to investigate how rubber stocks survived the rubber stock bubble and Xinhai Revolution. The history published that the managers of rubber companies usually paid out a lot of cash dividends in order to increase investor’s confidence. The panel data analysis shows cash dividends do significantly have positive impact on stock price.