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Title: | 流感與急診相關疾病對於台灣股票市場的影響 The Impact of Flu and Emergency-Related Diseases on Taiwan Stock Markets |
Authors: | Yen-Ju Chen 陳彥如 |
Advisor: | 王耀輝 |
Keyword: | 流感,成交值,成交量,波動率,報酬率,週轉率,急診相關疾病, dollar volume,emergency-related diseases,flu,realized volatility,return,trading shares,turnover, |
Publication Year : | 2014 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | McTier, Tse, and Wald (2013) 檢驗流感是否對於股票市場會產生顯著的影響,本篇依據McTier, Tse, and Wald (2013) 的架構,試著以更多元的疾病類別,除了流感,亦涵蓋急診相關傳染病,包含類流感、腹瀉、腸病毒、泡疹性咽峽炎及手足口病,更以不同地區、年齡及性別組成的流感發生率及急診就診率對於2003年至2013年台灣股票市場的影響進行更進一步研究。研究中發現全台灣、都會區(台北市、新北市、台中市、台南市及高雄市)、及台北市其流感發生率及急診就診率對於台灣股票市場中的交易活動產生影響,使得成交值、成交量及週轉率下滑,也降低整體市場的股票報酬率及波動率。另一方面總公司所在區域其急診就診率越高,公司股票的成交值、成交量及週轉率越低,報酬率受到負面影響,波動率亦下滑。除了工作人口(年齡介於15至64歲)感染流感及急診相關傳染病會導致交易活動、報酬率及波動率受到影響之外,幼齡及老齡人口的感染亦產生影響。而性別為男性或女性對於交易活動並無造成明顯差異,但女性感染流感會使得報酬率及波動率有下滑的現象。相較於成交量、成交值、週轉率、報酬率及波動率的結果,疾病對於買賣價差的影響結果並不一致,且較無明顯的效果。 In this study, McTier, Tse, and Wald (2013) is followed up to examine whether flu infection and emergency-related diseases containing flu like, diarrhea, enterovirus infection, herpangina, and hand-foot-and-mouth disease consultation affect Taiwan stock markets in the period of 2003 to 2013. In order to conduct further investigation, different regions, age formation, and gender are studied to make a more general analysis. In Taiwan, flu incidence and emergency-related diseases consultation rates in the whole Taiwan, metropolitan area (Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City), and Taipei City are associated with lower trading activity, that is, less dollar volume, trading shares, and turnover. Also, the stock markets returns and volatility decline as the flu infection and emergency-related diseases consultation increase. On the other hand, the higher consultation rates of emergency-related diseases in firm headquartered regions, the less trading activity, returns and volatility. Furthermore, not only working-aged people (age 15 to 64) who are infected with flu or emergency-related diseases have an influence on trading activity, returns, and volatility, but also children (age 0-14) and elder people (age 65 and over) do have a significant effect. Male and female, however, do not have a significant effect on trading activity. While more female catch flu, stock returns and volatility decline. For spread, there is no distinct effect relative to the results of trading activity, returns, and volatility; moreover, the results are not quite consistent. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/57711 |
Fulltext Rights: | 有償授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 財務金融學系 |
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