Facebook粉絲頁之訊息傳播於電影票房之影響

Abstract

隨著社群網路平台快速成長與成熟，越來越多人在社群網路上和大眾分享自己的意見及行為。Facebook的每日用戶數已高達八億，是近年來成長最迅速的社交網路之一。本研究旨在探討Facebook粉絲專頁之訊息傳播對於電影票房之影響力。首先，我們建立GIM模型，以估計使用者在粉絲頁上之影響力，並預測未來粉絲頁和粉絲之間的互動次數。接著，我們提出了一個線性迴歸模型，結合社群影響力及非社群的資訊，建立粉絲專頁和電影票房之間的關係。實驗結果顯示，社群影響力可明顯改善預測電影票房的準確度。

With the rapid growth and the maturity of online social networking applications, many people share their activities and opinions through social media. Facebook is one of the fastest growing social networks and has experienced a burst of popularity in recent years. In this study, we propose a framework to investigate the impact of social influence of a Facebook fan page on the movie box-office revenue. The proposed framework contains two phases. First, we develop the Global Influence Model to estimate the user influence and predict the engagements between the fan page and users. Next, we propose the Linear Box-Office Revenue Prediction Model to establish the relationship between Facebook fan pages and movie box-office revenues by utilizing the social influence and some statistics obtained from Facebook fan pages. The experiment results show that the accuracy of forecasting revenues for movies can be improved significantly by considering the social influence.