全球紙漿貿易網絡之探討

Abstract

紙製品在生活中幾乎隨處可見，早已不可或缺。近年來，全球的紙漿及造紙產業，在全球供給與需求的結構已有不小的改變，但以往對於整體貿易網絡中，各國的影響力大小，並無較具體的分析架構。本研究先行分析近年來全球紙漿的進出口貿易趨勢，接著為建立全球紙漿貿易網絡之評估架構，藉由社會網絡之向內（外）程度中心性、中介中心性、接近中心性以及特徵向量中心性等四種指標，評估2000年、2005年、2010年及2012年之全球紙漿貿易網絡，並將結果彙整。而後，再針對於全球紙漿貿易網絡具有影響力之國家，進行個別討論。 在全球紙漿貿易網絡中，向內（外）程度中心性的結果顯示紙漿出口國建立之貿易關係之能力高於紙漿進口國；中介中心性的結果則顯示美國、德國及南非在紙漿貿易網絡中較具有控制資源的能力，或是具有轉口國之功能；而在接近中心性的部分，美國、德國、義大利、加拿大及瑞典於進口網絡中最接近核心位置，在出口網絡中則是美國、德國、瑞典及法國等表現最好；特徵向量中心性的結果是以德國、美國、瑞典、芬蘭、義大利及法國等國在全球網絡中的影響力較為強勁，而且在四個年度中也很穩定。而中國的排名則是在2010年及2012年時迅速上升，對於全球紙漿網絡的影響力正在快速增加。 本研究另以貿易額及貿易夥伴數量為基準，並以社會網絡中心性之分析建立全球紙漿貿易網絡的評估架構。綜合以上結果所挑選出之重點國家，大多為紙漿主要出口國，除了中國因進口貿易額龐大到對於整體網絡有顯著的影響性之外，整體而言，紙漿的出口網絡對於全球紙漿貿易網絡，相較於進口網絡上仍較具有影響性。

Paper products have become the necessity in our daily lives. In recent years, demand and supply of pulp and paper products have a structural change all over the world. However, there was no quantity analysis about the global trade network. This article describes the recent trends in pulp trade at first. Second, using four centrality indices : in/out-degree centrality、betweenness centrality、closeness centrality and eigenvector centrality of the social network estimates global pulp trade network in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012 in order to develop a measurement framework. Last but not least, this study provides the framework to find out the pulp trading countries which are much more influence all over the world. According to the results, the index, in/out-degree centrality, indicates that the pulp exportung countries have more influence than the importing countries due to their trading partners. The betweenness centrality turns out United States, Germany and South Africa have the potential of global pulp trading center and the capacity to control the import/export frequencies. Closeness centrality explains the center countries of the import network are United States, German, Italy, Canada and Sweden. Besides, United States, Germany, Sweden and France are more outstanding in the export network. Then, eigenvector centrality figures out Germany has the most influence in the global pulp trade network and followed by the United States, Sweden, Finland, Italy and France. The countries had a stable rankof global pulp trade network during those results in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012. The rank of China has a great progress in 2010 and 2012 which means China’s influence had grown at high speed to the global pulp trade network. This article bases on the trading value and the trading partners that develop the global pulp trade measurement framework through the social network centrality index. Despite China is one of the most influenced countries to global pulp trade network. But China is also the only importing country of the influenced countries. The other influenced countries are mainly count on export trade. To sum up, the pulp exporting countries have the most significant influences on global pulp trade network.