以使用發電與耗能預測資料提升混合型太陽光發電系統性能之可行性評估

Abstract

本研究使用線性回歸法與加權移動平均法對於太陽光發電功率及交流負載用電功率大小進行預測，再將預測結果輸入預測型Fuzzy控制器，以進行HyPV系統之市電/太陽光供電切換控制。模擬結果顯示此一預測型Fuzzy控制對於HyPV系統性能之影響主要在於減少供電切換次數(約10%)，對於電池(充放電)循環次數、市電替代率及發電損失率等影響極為有限。本研究最後亦針對不同發電、儲電及耗電功率大小之HyPV子系統組合進行模擬，同樣獲致相同之結果，亦即使用發電與耗電預測資料對於現有Fuzzy控制為基礎之HyPV系統性能影響有限。

This research keeps using fuzzy based controller with new proposed prediction data input in the switching control of HyPV. To estimate the prediction results for predictive fuzzy controller, linear regression of forecasting photovoltaic power and weighted moving average of forecasting load power are applied. Although the simulation results show that predictive fuzzy controller reduce about 10% switching times of HyPV performance, this controller has no effect on others HyPV performance, such as battery life cycle, grid power instead rate or PV power loss rate. At last, this thesis performs many simulations in different size combination of HyPV sub-systems, all the simulations appear the same results. This thesis concludes a result which is the proposed predictive fuzzy controller has less effect on HyPV performance.