具健康照護產業之小型開放經濟體的政策分析：育兒津貼與教育補助

Abstract

本文使用三期疊代模型分析人口老化對於人力資本累積與勞動生產力的影響。此模型中存在健康照護部門與非健康照護部門，且勞工可在兩部門之間流動；另外，由於我們同時考慮教養下一代所需花費的時間與金錢成本，人力資本可隨時間累積。結果顯示人口老化將使得較多勞動力投入健康照護部門，對於累積人力資本以及非健康照護部門的勞動生產力有負面影響，進而降低工資率。本文亦分析公共政策(如：育兒津貼與教育補助)對社會的影響，結果顯示在一定的補貼率下，育兒津貼對於未來世代的終生效用有正面影響；教育補助則是對於現今世代及未來世代的終生效用皆有正向影響。

This paper constructs a small open two-sector (the health care sector and the non-health care sector) overlapping generations model and takes the resource cost of child education into account.Under this model, labors can be allocated to either sector and human capital can be accumulated over time. This paper investigates how population aging affects human capital accumulation and labor productivity of the non-health care sector. We show that population aging induces a labor shift towards the health care sector, thus affecting the human capital level and wage rate per unit of human capital negatively. This paper also examines the effects of public policies for child care and education. We show that under a certain range of subsidy rates, either type of child care subsidy policy affects the lifetime utility of future generations positively, while the education subsidy policy is beneficial to both current and future generations