中國行動支付產業競合策略之情境分析

Abstract

行動支付係指使用者透過行動裝置，對所消費的商品或服務進行帳務支付的創新支付模式；根據所使用的支付技術，尚可分為遠端支付和近端支付兩種。近年來行動支付的發展迅速，由於牽涉諸多法令規定、支付技術、與多方競爭躍躍欲試的景況，加上行動支付的賽局有可能影響相關產業的競爭力，各方廠商無不希望建立有效策略以對。本研究選擇以「線下購物」為聚焦，針對中國行動支付產業未來可能的發展情境，進行系統性的分析，期能提供互聯網廠商擬定對策之參考。 中國行動支付產業競爭激烈的原因，在於各方競爭者皆想利用行動支付平台贏者全拿的特性，取得主導地位蒐集海量的消費者交易資訊，做資料服務或精準行銷以增加收入，而儲存交易資訊的安全元件就成為各個競爭者選擇解決方案的重點。紛紛投入競爭的結果，競爭者與行動支付產業鏈成員業務重疊，這使得電信業者、銀行、技術提供者、卡組織、互聯網公司原本的合作關係更加緊張。 在此基礎上，本研究以情境分析方法，首先確立如何解決平台需求方同邊網路效應薄弱，進而激發需求方之間、需求方與供給方之間的跨邊網路效應，以及維持平台生態系的平衡，為情境分析的三個主要決策焦點。接著，本研究根據對中國行動支付產業的深度分析，加上專家訪談意見，建立了影響產業發展的關鍵不確定性因素，並將這些因素歸類成行動支付標準的制定、行動支付需求量、競爭強度等三個不確定性的主要軸面，依其發展動向組合出三強鼎立、兩強相爭、養精蓄銳、伺機而動、維持傳統等五個情境。 最後，本研究根據這些情境的內涵，以及在各個情境下競爭重點與關鍵價值的不同，建議互聯網公司應採取兩面下注的策略，將損失最小化，透過與Apple Pay合作，填補本身在操作簡便性與安全性的短處；同時運用本身龐大需求方基礎以及創新能力的優勢，研發出更簡便且安全的產品，穩固iOS與Android市場。

Mobile payment is a way for customers to pay their purchases via mobile devices. Based on the use of different technologies, mobile payment can be further divided into two types: remote payment and proximity payment. In recent years, due to the rapid development of mobile payment , the progress of the related regulations, technologies, and industrial competition changed constantly. All of the players, which include carriers, banks, technology providers, card associations, and internet companies, are eager to formulate an effective strategy to gain competitive advantage and eventually win the game. This study will focus on offline shopping mode of mobile payment and apply scenario analysis to unravel the future uncertainty of industrial development. In China, the incentive of participating in mobile payment competition is the “ Winner takes all” feature of mobile payment platform. The players plan on utilizing the feature to gain customer insight from big trading data, and increase their revenue by doing precision marketing or providing data services. Therefore, the design of secure element is the key point of solution. The competitors expand their business, trying to increase their own bargaining power from other parties. As a result, their business operations overlap from each other, causing the relationship between all players and the industrial competition become much more complicated. The features of mobile payment platform are (1) weak same-sided network effect, (2) strong cross-sided network effect, (3) high transformation cost. Due to these features, there three challenges for the competitors: (1) How to simulate the same-sided network effect between customer and merchant. (2) How to simulate the cross-sided network effect between demand side and supply side. (3) How to maintain the balance of platform ecosystem. Based on the features of mobile payment mentioned before, and the insight from industrial experts, we established three key factors of industrial development, including the progress of mobile payment standard, the demand of mobile payment, and the intensiveness of competition. We utilized these key factors to build 5 scenarios and finished the analysis. In conclusion, based on the scenario analysis, we suggested that the internet companies should develop an all-around strategy to minimize the loss. In order to build a sound market position, they should cooperate with Apple Pay, utilizing the great UX design and security of Apple Pay to upgrade iOS users’ experience; meanwhile, taking the advantage of firm demand side base and innovative ability to create a simpler and safer mobile payment product to Android users.