人民幣國際化及利率市場化之分析

Abstract

中國經濟改革開放以來，歷經多次轉型，國內經濟逐漸成長，對外貿易也逐年創新高，金融業的持續開放支撐國內產業的發展同時促使對外貿易的蓬勃發展。本論文分析中國金融業在改革開放過程中，利率市場化可能面臨的相關議題，因為利率在市場化過程中，將面臨許多嚴峻的挑戰，因此本論文借鏡國際(特別是美國)的經驗來分析利率市場化未來將可能對中國產生怎麼樣的影響。此外，中國央行發展人民幣國際化政策的過程亦非簡單且易達成的目標，透過本論文的分析可得知單純加入SDR(Special Drawing Right；特別提款權)並非能達到貨幣國際化的目標，而許多重要指標可以表現出一個貨幣國際化的程度。因應人民幣國際化過程，本論文同時闡述中國推動金融自由化過程中可能會遇到的困難與阻礙。了解未來中國發展可能會有的機會與風險可以使我們在未來市場中抓緊機會並且盡量避免風險導致的損失。

After the reform and opening-up policy of China, the enterprisesexperience many stages of transformation. Moreover, the domestic economy is growing up gradually, and the international trading reaches the recorded high as well. The financial deregulation not only supports the domestic industry but also stimulates the international trading. According to the thesis’s analysis of financial deregulation processes, China, no doubt, will face many problems when it exercises interest rate liberalization. By using the experience of International(especially America's) interest rate liberalization, this thesis expresses some issues which China may encounter in the future. On the other hand, when Chinese government promotes Renminbi to be the international currency, joining SDR is not the method to accomplish this goal. Many other factors can evaluate the degree of an international currency. This thesis also presents some useful factors to realize how many processes and what important policies should be done by Chinese government. Learning from other international currency’s experiences, I detail many difficulties and barriers that China promote finacial liberalization will face. Finally, understanding the pros and the cons of the Chinesereformation do help us grab the opportunities of enhance our portfolio and avoid the risk of diminishing returns.