運用行為者模式於不同使用者間之用水特性分析探討

Abstract

隨著產業型態改變、氣候變遷，水資源的需求不斷成長，如何有效分配水資源成為一個重要的議題。 過去我們在做水資源分配時，習慣已整體的概念去思考，也就是以總體的社會效益作為決策依據，因為過於強調總體的效益，導致忽略小團體或基層單位的需求，無法多元的去分配水資源。本研究以多觀點同時探討不同用水者之間的關係、用水者、供水者的目標，以及政策對用水的影響。 此研究採用行為者模式（Agent-Based Model）模擬供水系統，行為者分為決策者、供水者、用水者三類，依照不同的行為特性，供水者分為農田水利會和自來水公司兩類而用水者有農業及工業民生兩類，這是一個兩階層的模擬，在決策者不同的配水政策下，用水者以及供水者會有不同的行為，探討不同分配狀況以及政策限制下，用水的行為以及對環境的影響。希望透過了解不同用水者的特性以及環境永續的發展，提供未來水資源管理決策者在設計配水政策時評估或參考。

As the development of social and economic, the demands of water increase, water resources management plays a significant role. Nowadays the management of water resource allocation mostly uses the perspective of the government, considering the water deficits indicator and the social benefit. However, viewpoints of water user should be discussed, which can make water resource allocation more appropriate. In this research, an agent-based model is proposed to analyze the characteristics of different water users, the interaction between individuals and organizations, and groundwater use that impact on environmental section. The study develops a two-level model to simulate policy maker and water user. The model result suggest that total profit of user is the main factor which influence the behavior of water user. Based on the result, we can propose a better policy to allocate water resources, and then we simulate in a long term we can learn about the change on groundwater level. This research provides insights to water management agency in evaluating different water usage polices, as well as estimations for potential land subsidence for future.