影響目標日期基金績效之因素分析

Abstract

由於台灣新制勞工退休金可望於自選投資平台建立後，設定目標日期基金為預設標的，私校退撫儲金亦很可能成為台灣第一個以目標日期基金作為預設選擇的退休基金管理制度，故本研究希望藉由研究目標日期基金發展較為成熟的美國市場，了解目標日期基金之特色與運作模式、發展現況，並藉由橫斷式迴歸分析法，檢驗會顯著影響目標日期基金風險調整後報酬的基金特色變數。 實證結果發現，過去績效與前期配置於普通股之比率於三個目標日期區間的 目標日期基金中，均顯示對風險調整後報酬有1%顯著水準的正向關係。基金費用率、資產可配置於其他公司的比率，與前期淨流入資產比率亦於某些區間內與風險調整後報酬呈顯著關係。費用率、前期淨流入資產比率與風險調整後報酬分別呈5%顯著水準之正向關係與10%顯著水準之正向關係；資產可配置於其他公司之比率與風險調整後報酬呈10%顯著水準之負向關係。 本研究最後提醒投資人，在選擇目標日期基金時仍要考量本身的風險承受度與該目標日期基金滑行道的調整機制，並隨時注意本身的風險情況與市場風險的變化，才能挑選到最適合自己的目標日期基金。

Taiwan Labor Pension New Scheme may incorporate Target-Date Fund as its default fund after the member choice platform is set up, and the Retirement & Compensation Fund for Private Schools may also be the first pension fund plan in Taiwan to incorporate Target-Date Fund as its default choice. Therefore, in this study, we introduce the Target-Date Fund’s features, operation framework, and market development by researching on the relatively mature US market. We also apply cross-sectional regression to find out which fund characteristic shows significant effect on Target-date Fund's risk-adjusted performance. According to our results, we find significantly positive relations at the 1% level between lagged risk-adjusted performance and risk-adjusted performance, and also lagged diversification and risk- adjusted performance among all three groups of Target-Date Funds. Expenses, open architecture and lagged inflows show significance in the results of some groups. We find significantly positive relations of expenses on risk-adjusted performance at the 5% level and lagged inflows on risk-adjusted performance at the 10% level. Yet open architecture shows a significantly negative relation on risk- adjusted performance at the 10% level. Finally, we suggest the investors that they should take their risk tolerance and the time-varying system of Target-Date glide path into consideration when choosing Target-Date Funds for retirement plan. They should also pay attention to the potential changes of their risk capacity and market condition, thus to find out the best fitted Target-Date Fund for themselves.