台灣對中國投資與貿易對就業市場的影響

Abstract

本文研究1998-2010年間，台灣對中國投資與貿易對台灣就業市場的影響。我們擴張了一般小型開放經濟體的貿易模型，加入對外投資的變數，並以台灣的個體資料與產業資料驗證模型的預測。實證結果發現，增加對中國的投資會降低台灣非技術勞工的薪資水準並增加失業率，而技術勞工的失業率則因此減少。相反地，增加對中國的淨出口會提高非技術勞工的薪資，從而縮小了技術薪資溢酬。淨出口增加也讓非技術勞工的失業率下降、技術勞工的失業率上升。

This study aims to analyze the impact of Taiwan's investment in and trade with China on Taiwan's labor market between 1998 and 2010. This project involves expanding a small open economy model to one that includes the impact of outward direct investment and trade. By testing model's predictions on the merged Taiwanese individual-level and industry-level datasets, we find empirical evidence suggesting that outward investment in China places downward pressure on unskilled laborer's real wage levels. In addition, we discover that this outward investment increases the unemployment rate of unskilled laborers while lowering that of skilled laborers. In contrast to the results of outward investment, trade with China raises unskilled laborer's wage levels, thereby contributing to the shrinking of the skill premium. Trade also decreases the unemployment rate of unskilled laborers at the cost of increasing the unemployment rate for skilled laborers.