臺北市立動物園遊客量之影響因素研究

Abstract

臺北市立動物園歷來為民眾出遊之熱門選擇，每年吸引數以百萬計之遊客入園。因此，本研究目的在於瞭解臺北市立動物園遊客量之影響因素，以及這些因素之影響為何，且在不同時間區段下，影響因素是否不同，進而建立遊客量模型。遊客量資料包含1999年至2014年間之年月遊客量、2005年至2014年間之日遊客量，影響因素則考量時間週期、活動與事件、天氣條件。研究結果顯示年數、開幕效應、明星動物效應對全年遊客量有顯著正向影響，而SARS則對全年遊客量有顯著負向影響。月遊客量及日遊客量分析採用近十年之資料進行；春節月、暑假、放假日數、明星動物季度對月遊客量有顯著正向影響，而最高氣溫小於等於15℃日數、最高氣溫大於等於30℃日數、單月降雨日數則對月遊客量有顯著負向影響；星期六、星期日、三日以上連假日、活動舉辦、單日日照率對日遊客量有顯著正向影響，單日降雨時數、日最大瞬間風風速則對日遊客量有顯著負向影響，而最高氣溫與日均濕度對日遊客量之影響非線性關係。研究結果有助於管理單位擬定經營管理策略，並作為行銷推廣之參考。

Taipei Zoo is a popular choice for the public and attracts millions of visitors every year. The aims of this study were to understand the factors affecting the number of visitors to Taipei Zoo, and how these factors affected the visitor numbers, in order to compare the yearly, monthly and daily factors, and to model the visits. The data of yearly and monthly visits between 1999 and 2014 were included, as well as the data of daily visits from 2005 to 2014. Time fluctuations, activities, events, and weather conditions were considered as factors. The results suggested that the numbers of years, the opening effect, and the animal stars had significantly positive effects on yearly visits. SARS had significantly negative effect on yearly visits. The data in the recent ten years were used for analyzing the monthly and daily visits. The monthly visits were positively affected by the months of Chinese New Year, summer vacation, days of holidays, and quarter of animal stars. However, the days of maximum temperature lower than or equal to 15°C , the days of maximum temperature higher than or equal to 30°C, and the days of rainfall had negative effects on the monthly deviation from the mean of the year. Additionally, daily visits were positively affected by Saturday, Sunday, holidays at least three days long, events, and percentage of sunshine. The hours of rainfall and maximum peak wind speed had negative effects on daily visits. The relationships between maximum temperature and daily visits, and between average humidity and daily visits, were not linear. The results could help administrators develop strategies for management, and be beneficial for marketing and promotion.