以生命週期角度分析網路公司評價-以美國網路公司為研究對象

Abstract

本論文以產業生命週期角度，分析不同商業模式之網路公司所對應之產業目前生命週期階段，探討不同生命週期階段之網路企業其未來之營收規模與成長性，並分析網路產業之於其所屬之產業類別目前佔比及未來網路可取代之比例。 本研究以網路產業中之網路媒體/入口網站、線上遊戲、電子商務三種網路產業為研究標的，針對個案公司之理論企業價值進行分析。 本研究發現，在評估比較不同商業模式之網路公司價值時，不同產業之網路公司企業價值應與所對應產業之規模與成長性呈現相對應比例。故分析網路公司評價時，應對該公司所處產業別之規模與合理之成長性進行評估，避免非理性過於樂觀之預估。 自由現金流量結合產業生命週期分析，可作為一種分析網路公司價值之評價方式，提供網路產業與投資市場相關人士對網路產業擬定未來發展與投資策略的參考。

From the perspective of industry life cycles, this research analyzes the current life cycle stage of different Internet companies, taking into account their respective business models. The study also explores the future business scope and potential growth of Internet companies, which are associated with the different life cycle stages they have gone through. An analysis is also made to identify the existing market share of these Internet companies in their respective industries, and the possible percentage of replacement by Internet businesses in the future. In this research, an analysis has been made on the theoretical value of respective Internet companies, focusing on three Internet industries, i.e., Internet media/Portals, Online games, and e-Commerce industries. It has been discovered in the research that, when assessing the value of Internet companies with different business models, a corresponding percentage can be identified between the value of the firm and the future scope/potential growth of the industry it is associated with. When analyzing the value of an Internet company, therefore, the researcher should in the meantime take into account the scope of the relevant industry, as well as its reasonable growth rate in future, thereby avoiding irrational or overly optimistic forecasts. The Free Cash Flow (FCF) approach, when integrated with the industry life cycle analysis, can be used as a methodology to assess the value of Internet firms. The information will be helpful to the Internet industry and relevant individuals in the investment market when developing future business plans or investment strategies.