建立先進鐵路號誌系統之成本效益分析流程

Abstract

為了因應軌道運輸需求之成長，各國正積極地擴展軌道路網之容量，並增強其系統之可靠度，台灣鐵路管理局〈台鐵〉亦是其中一員。為了適應日漸成長之需求、增進系統的可靠度以及運作之安全，台鐵有興趣了解採用各種先進的信號系統之潛在利益，如歐洲鐵路運輸管理系統〈ERTMS〉。發展適當的評估工具以瞭解採用這些先進號誌系統之成本有效性是有其必要性的，因此本研究對於建置先進號誌系統，發展完整的成本效益分析流程，並針對其中容量效益之部分，研發容量解析模式應用在通勤鐵路營運上。成本效益分析流程與容量解析模式可以幫助有類似操作環境的鐵路部門執行容量管理以及資源規畫。 以台鐵最繁忙的西部段基隆至新竹為案例分析對象，雖然實證結果顯示建置先進號誌系統在對容量提升、延誤減少以及安全和環境上有正面的效果，然而其建置的效益無法滿足建置所需之成本。

Railways around the world are experiencing growth in traffic demand and need to expand their network capacity and increase system reliability. The commuter railway operator in Taiwan, the Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA), is no exception. To accommodate the substantial future demand, increase the reliability of system and reinforce the safety of operation, the TRA is interested in understanding the potential benefit of adopting various advanced signaling systems, such as ERTMS systems. Appropriate evaluation tools are required to understand the cost-effectiveness of adopting these new systems; therefore, in this study, I developed a process of cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the impact from using advanced signaling systems; I also developed a set of analytical capacity models for commuter rail operations with advanced signaling systems. The use of this process and capacity models can help railway agencies with similar operational environments on their capacity management and resource planning. These models were implemented in the busiest corridor in the TRA system. Although the empirical results show that advanced signaling systems generally have positive effects on capacity, delay reduction, safety and environment, the net present value of various scenarios are negative.