兩岸關係之變化與歐巴馬政府初期台海政策(2009.1-2010.5)

Abstract

美國長久以來便在兩岸關係中扮演著極為重要之角色，隨著兩岸關係的改變，也會因此影響到美國的台海政策，本文的研究重點在歐巴馬政府上台以後，面對兩岸關係在經濟、政治、軍事和外交的改變，並且是逐漸走向更為緊密的狀況，歐巴馬政府的台海政策是否會因此有所調整或改變？再者，歐巴馬政府在面對各項議題皆需要中國的合作之下，其會如何看待和中國之關係，對中戰略和政策是否會有所調整，而在此調整之下，是否會影響和台灣之關係？ 本文試圖從戰略三角理論分析歐巴馬政府的台海政策，面對兩岸關係呈現友善的關係時，歐巴馬政府在綜合國內外因素考量之下，會選擇對自身角色效益最高的「三邊家族」戰略三角關係，因此在2009年分別和中國、台灣採取互為「朋友」的戰略作為，但到了2010年卻因為其戰略利益和核心價值與中國有所衝突，以及期中選舉將至，遭受國內外壓力，使得美中關係逐漸惡化，美國因此可能漸居為「側翼」角色。但美國也認知到在許多議題皆須要中國合作的狀況下，雙方關係的持續惡化對美國長期來講是不利的，因此還是盡可能的在會造成衝突升高的議題或事件上有所節制，兩國關係會進入更為成熟的階段；此外，面對逐漸向中傾斜的馬政府，美國也試圖發揮其影響力，避免在兩岸議題上被邊緣化，進而喪失在東亞地區的主導權，但我們也必須持續地注意，歐巴馬政府在面對兩岸關係的改善以及各方面皆需要中國協助的情況下，是否會走向「對台承諾空洞化」的狀況。

For a long time, America plays an important role in cross-strait relationship. The change of cross-strait relationship inflects U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan. Facing the cross-strait relationship change and become closer in economic, politic, military, and diplomacy, will Obama administration change their cross-strait policy? Furthermore, because the U.S. needs China’s cooperation in many issues, the Obama administration might change the attitude toward China, and this could inflect the policy toward Taiwan. This essay tries to analysis Obama’s cross-strait policy in strategic triangle model theory, when cross-strait relationship is friendly, considering the national and international circumstance, Obama administration will choose the best role in the triangle relationship. In 2009, the U.S. take the strategy to be China and Taiwan’s friend, but in 2010, the relationship between U.S. and China become worse, because the Obama administration took a strong attitude toward China for the core benefit and value and the pressure of mid-term election. The Obama administration also knew that this situation is disadvantage for them in the long term, because they need China’s cooperation in many issues. The two countries will try their best to prevent the conflict to happen or worse and toward a mature stage. Besides, the U.S. also tries to involve in the negotiation of cross-strait to prevent to be marginalized and lose the leader status in East Asia.