天然災害對台灣森林遊樂區遊客人數影響之分析

Abstract

近年台灣森林遊樂區遊客量有增加的趨勢，依照交通部觀光局所做的統計─台閩地區主要觀光遊憩區遊客人數，2008年全台遊客人數共計148,222,806人次，其中森林遊樂區的遊客人次佔了3.02%；而森林遊樂區遊客人次更自2004年的3,746,657人次增加到2008年的4,475,908人次，其中2007年更高達4,659,952人次。 台灣位於環太平洋火山地震帶，是多地震和火山的分布區，同時又是處於經常發生颱風的熱帶洋面上，每年遭受的地震、颱風等天然災害不計其數。而森林遊樂區多位處山區，屬於戶外遊憩活動，遇到地震、颱風等天然災害來襲時，常有災情傳出，而遊客經常因此減低旅遊意願。 本研究將對1994年至2008年林務局所轄森林遊樂區之遊客人次及遊客量年成長率作對應分析，藉以區分森林遊樂區之類別，亦將利用介入模型分析近年來受天災影響甚多的中部四處森林遊樂區遊客人次變化。

The number of visitors of Taiwan’s forest recreational areas is increasing recently. According to the census done by Taiwan’s Tourism Bureau, the number of visitors to the principal scenic spots in Taiwan in 2008 is 148,222,806, and 3.02% of tourists were counted in forest recreational areas. The number of visitors visiting the recreational areas of Taiwan boosted from 3,746,657 in 2004 to 4,475,908 in 2008, and the number reached a new high in 2007; Furthermore, there were 4,659,952 visitors in 2007. Taiwan is located on Pacific Ring of Fire, which is an area where large numbers of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. The position also belongs to the tropical ocean which is always struck by typhoons. The amount of being struck by earthquakes or typhoons is huge every year. Nevertheless, most of forest recreational areas are located in mountain regions, and these are a part of outdoor recreation. As Taiwan is visited by earthquakes or typhoons, these areas are often struck. Tourist’s travel willingness is decreased by this situation. This study is going to analyze the data of the number of visitors and the gross rate of the numbers of visitors from 1994 to 2008 by correspondence analysis, class these forest recreational areas, and analyze the data of central Taiwan’s four forest recreational areas which were struck by more natural disasters by intervention model.