快樂的你會減肥、抽煙、喝酒嗎？ ——兼論減肥可能創造之商機

Abstract

本研究架構於Lyubomirsky、King與Diener（2005）解釋快樂與成功因果關係之概念，提出快樂與減肥、抽煙、飲酒決策行為之間相關性的解釋。在定義減肥為好的決策、抽煙為壞的決策及飲酒為中立決策情況下，認為快樂與減肥行為應有正向關係、抽煙行為有負向關係與飲酒行為則應有雙向的關係。此外，我們亦建構能夠符合特定問卷的完整減肥、抽煙及飲酒模型，並且以實證估計的結果驗證快樂與三者決策行為之間的相關性。最後，藉由減肥願付價格之問卷，我們則是進一步估算台灣減肥潛在之商機。 而實證研究採用資料，來自於中央研究院「台灣地區心臟血管疾病風險因子研究」（Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Two Township Study，CVDFACTS）調查計畫中的第五循環問卷。實證研究結果發現，在吃藥配合運動的減肥療程模式中，「很快樂」比「很不快樂」的人們高89.19%的機率認為自己需要減肥、24.12%機率願意參與療程且願意多付25,783元的療程價格；而僅靠吃藥的減肥療程，「很快樂」比「很不快樂」的人們高89.32%認為自己需要減肥且願意多付50,691元的療程價格，但是「很快樂」比「很不快樂」的人們低33.85%機率願意參與僅靠吃藥的療程，可能原因是國人較無法接受僅靠藥物治療的減肥療程所致。 在抽煙行為上，「很快樂」比「很不快樂」的人低90.41%機率答覆「仍持續抽煙」，且平均每天約減少13支的抽煙量。飲酒行為方面，「很快樂」比「很不快樂」的人低97.76%機率答覆「仍持續飲酒」。但是快樂與平均每天酒精需量則有雙向關係，快樂程度為「快樂」時，是正負向關係的轉折點。整體而言，我們實證結果與概念架構相當一致。 最後，藉由減肥願付價格問卷，所估算得來的運動配合吃藥2009年可能的潛在商機，約在新台幣66億元與441億元之間；僅靠吃藥的減肥療程，每年則約在34億元與229億元之間。

This study extends the concept brought by Lyubomirsky, King, and Diener (2005) regarding the relationship between happiness and success to constructing the relationship between happiness and weight reduction, smoking, and drinking. Under the definiition of the good, bad, and neutral decions for weight reduction, smoking, and drinking behavior respectively, we consider there is positive, negative, and dual relationship between happiness and weight reduction, smoking, drinking behavior. In addition, complete weight reduction, smoking, and drinking decision models are constructed respectively to explain the data at hand. Finally, with the willingness to pay revealed in the data, an estimated potential value from weight reduction for obesity treatment is obtained. The empirical data is from the fifth cycle of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Two Township Study by Academia Sinica of Taiwan. Empirical results indicate that exercise along with medication for the obesity treatment, the group of “the happiest people” has 89.19% higher probability than the group of “the unhappiest people” to reduce weight. Moreover, the group of “the happiest people” has 24.12% higher probability to attend the obesity treatment and is willing to pay NT$ 25,783 more than that by group of “the unhappiest people.” If obesity treatment by medication only, the group of “the happiness people” has 89.32% higher probability than the counter extreme group, i.e. “the unhappiness of people,” to reduce weight and is willing to pay about double than that from the previous treatment, i.e. is willing to pay $50,691 than the group of “the unhappiest people.” However the group of “the happiest people” has 33.85% probability lower than the group of “the unhappiest people” for attending the pure medication treatment only. In regarding to the smoking behavior, however, the group of “the happiest people” has 90.41% probability lower than the group of “the unhappiest people” for continuing smoking and the group of “the happiness people” will decrease about 13 cigarettes per day than the group of “the unhappiest people.” Similarly phenomenon applies to drinking behavior, the group of “the happiest people” has 97.76% probability lower than the group of “the unhappiness people” for continuing drinking. There is an U-shaped relationship between happiness and average alcohol demand per day. It is consistent with the expectation that the turning-point occurs at the group of “happy people,” i.e. changing from the group of “the happy neutral” to the group of “the happiest people.” The willingness to pay provided in the questionnaire for obesity treatment, the estimated value for obesity treatment from exercise along with medication on 2009 is between NT$ 6.6 and NT$ 44.1 billion. On the other hand, the value for medicines treatment only is between NT$ 3.4 and NT$ 22.9 billion.