台灣對外關係的新治理模式－馬英九政府「外交休兵」的可行性評估

Abstract

21世紀是具有「中國崛起」特色的「全球化」世紀，也是「外交休兵」的實踐場域。長年以來，台灣的對外關係一直面臨中共全球性的圍堵與打壓，這種外交困境從2008年5月馬英九總統推動「外交休兵」開始，有了全新的轉變；兩岸大幅度地進行「融冰」交流，也不再進行零合式的外交鬥爭，與過去劍拔弩張的兩岸關係，呈現完全不同的和解氛圍。 「外交休兵」作為馬英九政府處理對外關係的新政策作為，其論述核心主要在攔置主權爭議，同時在「三不(不獨、不統、不武)」、「維持台海現狀」、「以台灣為主、對人民有利」的前提下，對外要求台灣的國際空間，對內希望能消弭因「族群政治」所積累的認同裂痕。 本文從「治理」的網絡理路出發，逐項分層剖析「外交休兵」在進行內、外「治理」時，所可能遭到的問題、挑戰與機遇，在評估其實踐成果與可能影響的同時，最後並提出政策建言，以提供主政者參考。

21st century as a whole can be characterized as a globalization century in which China's uprising particularly has raised great concerns. In the past two decades, relations between Taiwan and Mainland China had remained at a standoff and bilateral negotiations suspended, mainly because of the confrontational policy of each in dealing with one the other. At the same time, Taiwan's best ally, the U.S, saw Taiwan as a so-called “trouble maker.” Undoubtedly, it is the hope of international community to maintain the Taiwan Strait' s “status-quo” of peace and stability, and the Taiwan-US-China relations are of vital important to Taiwan's survival, security and development. In President Ma's inauguration address on May 20, 2008, he indicated clearly that “Taiwan has to be a respectable member of the global village. Dignity, autonomy, pragmatism and flexibility should be Taiwan's guiding principles when developing foreign relations.” President Ma called for the two sides of the Strait to “face reality, pioneer a new future, shelve controversies and pursue a win-win solution.” This “win-win solution,” which constructs the core value of President Ma's Diplomacy Truce, includes the principles of “no unification, no independence and no use of force”and “1992 Consensus- one China, respective interpretations.” Since then, Diplomacy Truce has changed the stalemate across the Taiwan Strait, and has marked a promising and turning point in terms of Taiwan's foreign policy as well as the Taiwan-US-China relations across the Taiwan Strait. However, it still remains to be watched whether Diplomacy Truce will last long under China's “one China” hard-line principle and whether Taiwan's 23 diplomatic relation countries remain unchanged. From the perspective of globalization and the framework of governance's network, this text deals with both inside-oriented and outside-oriented approach of Diplomacy Truce, reviewing the question, challenge and opportunity that Taiwan may meet, and proposes a policy suggestion while proceeding Diplomacy Truce's feasible assessment.