台灣地區產業結構變遷之探討

Abstract

本文係從經濟與產業發展的角度，從德國產業結構變遷的軌跡，驗證台灣地區產業結構變遷的軌跡是否相一致，同時也分析我國產業結構與人力結構的變動方向是否有一致性，然後再借取德國的發展經驗，做為台灣未來產業發展依循途徑的預測。 德國學者Dietrich and Krüger (2008) 所提出的理論，是假設消費者對各級產業所生產的商品有消費飽和點，同時考慮到需求面與生產面之德國產業結構長期變動的趨勢。從其理論得到之實證結果顯示，不論在就業或產出面皆可以驗證德國三級產業結構比的趨勢，其中農業（第一級產業）是一個遞減的趨勢、工業（第二級產業）則為一個倒U（inverse U-shaped）的形狀、服務業（第三級產業）為一個遞增的趨勢。 而本研究的實證模型是以Dietrich and Krüger (2008) 所提出的理論模型為依據，並利用近似無相關模型(seemingly unrelated regressions model；SUR Model)估測，在民國70年到民國95年間，台灣地區三級產業的結構變遷；從實證的結果顯示，此一之理論所建構的實證模型，可以驗證台灣地區三級產業的結構比的趨勢變化，不論在就業與產出方面，農業部門的結構比都是呈現下降的趨勢，服務業部門為上升的趨勢，而工業部門則呈現先升後降的趨勢，故此理論模型可作為研究產業結構變動參考模型之一。

From viewpoints of economy and industrial development, this study investigates the correlation of industrial transition between Taiwan and Germany. Besides, this research analyzes if there is coincidence between the transition of the industrial structure and the labor structure in Taiwan. Furthermore, this thesis predicts the future development of industry for Taiwan by the experience of Germany. The important assumption in Dietrich and Krüger (2008) is that the consumers would reach the saturation levels of their consumption for all three industrial sectors. Besides, the long-run transition trend of demand structure and production structure for German industry is also considered. The empirical results demonstrate that the trends for structure weights of three sectors could be verified for German industry either in employment or production structure. The results show that the weight of primary sector (agriculture, mining) has the decayed trend, the weight of secondary sector (manufacturing) has the inverse U-shaped form, and the weight of tertiary sector (services) has the trend of growing up. Based on the theory of Dietrich and Krüger (2008), this paper employs the SUR (seemingly unrelated regressions) Model, to estimate the transition of three sectors in Taiwan from 1981 to 2006. The empirical results show that the weight of primary sector is decayed in employment structure and production structure, the tertiary sector has the trend of growing up, and the secondary sector fits the inverse U-shaped form. Therefore, Dietrich and Krüger (2008) is one of effective theoretical model in doing research of sector development.