制度、空間外溢與經濟成長：以浙江省為例，2002-2006

Abstract

本研究以2002年至2006年浙江省的69個縣級市資料，使用空間探索分析方法與空間計量模型，探討制度因素與地理鄰近對浙江省區域經濟成長的影響。研究結果發現：(1) 空間探索分析發現，浙江省區域人均所得存在明顯的空間聚集，人均所得較高的縣市集中在浙東北環杭州灣地區，而西南山區則普遍存在人均所得較低的縣市; (2) 制度環境是經濟成長的重要因素，明確的產權制度才能保持制度的有效性，經濟要獲得持續的發展，便是要建立私有財產制度。唯有解除國家對經濟的管制，恢復市場競爭，才能促進一國的經濟發展; (3) 空間迴歸模型顯示空間外溢效果顯著，表示區域經濟間具有空間相依性，因此，在使用政策工具改善區域經濟發展不均時，必須了解到區域政策不僅對單一地區造成影響，其效果更會外溢到其他地區，故要以宏觀的角度來制定經濟發展政策。

In this thesis we use exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods to investigate the effects of spatial spillover and institution on economic growth in 69 of Zhejiang’s counties during the period of 2002-2006. The empirical results show that: (1) There exists strong global spatial dependence in the regional GDP per capita between counties from 2002 to 2006. Counties in Northeast link Hangzhou Bay area have maintained their higher level of wealth; however, the mountainous areas in the southwest more commonly include poorer counties; (2) An institutional environment is the important source of economic growth. Only through explicit property rights can the institution’s validity be maintained. Only deregulating the government’s control over the economy and resuming the market’s competition can promote a country's economic development; (3) The estimated results of the spatial regression model indicate spatial spillover effects matter for regional economic growth. Counties are advantageous in promoting economic growth in neighboring regions. Hence, when using the policy tool to improve regional inequalities, we have to understand that the region policy not only influences the particular area but its effects flow out to others.