不確定需求環境產能預留方針之需要分析

Abstract

半導體供應鏈中存在著許多變異，包括了需求的不確定以及廠商在提供產能時的不確定等，因為需求的變異大，再加上產能成本高，導致廠商在產能規劃方面難以作決策。本文的主要目的是探討產能預留方針能否提供風險分攤的機制來降低需求不確定對廠商所帶來的影響，同時又能增加客戶產能需求的確定性。本文首先建構廠商與客戶經濟分析模型，其次，根據此利潤模型，建立一個設備閒置與商機損失的經濟分析模式，最後，分別以廠商及客戶的角度探討產能預留方針的經濟分析，進而驗證半導體製造產業確實需要產能預留方針，並探討廠商與客戶在決策時所發生使用產能預留方針的衝突與矛盾，以賽局方法找出雙方均衡決策。未來的高科技產能依然存在著需求變異，本文提出的概念將有助於廠商擬定對策。

There are lots of uncertainties in semiconductor manufacturing, including demand uncertainties and capacity supply uncertainties. Because of huge demand uncertainty and high capacity cost, it is difficult for foundry manufacturer to do his capacity planning. The objective of this paper is to discuss if capacity reservation policy can offer a risk sharing mechanism to reduce the effect of demand uncertainty for foundry manufacturer and to increase the certainty capacity requirements for customers. An IDM operation based economic analysis for both foundry manufacturer and customers is first presented. An economic analysis model is then derived for over-capacity and under-capacity cost. Then we confer the economic analysis for capacity reservation policy from foundry’s and customer’s perspective. Furthermore, we prove that semiconductor manufacturing indeed needs capacity reservation policy.