台灣總體計量模型之政府政策探討

Abstract

本文研究主要目的為建立台灣總體計量模型，並透過模型分析政府施行不同政策對於總體經濟所產生的影響。依據台灣目前經濟情勢，本文假設三種不同政策，包括貨幣政策、財政政策以及匯率政策，分別在不同情境下進行評估與分析：(1)貨幣政策：在央行考慮調升重貼現率的情況下，選擇逐次調整亦或一次調整的方案。如同目前央行所採取的作法，逐次調整對於總體經濟的負面影響較小，但對物價抑制的效果相對也較低。(2)財政政策：在政府新政下，政府暫時性投資在預算平衡考量下，以租稅融通時能有效提高產出，對民間投資則無顯著的排擠效果；反之，舉債僅會使財政負擔更加沉重，長期將對經濟產生負面影響。(3)匯率政策：央行干預新台幣升值與貶值，僅是在經濟成長與物價穩定之間的抵換關係，因此在長期經濟發展考量下，央行應避免過度干預匯率，讓匯率由市場機制決定。

The purpose of this study is Taiwan’s macroeconometric modeling, and using the model to analysis the effects of government’s different policies on macroeconomy. According to the economic situations of Taiwan, this study assumes three different policies, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, and exchange rate policy, then assess and analysis them under different scenarios separately. (1) Monetary policy: under the situation that central bank considers that raises rediscount rate by gradual adjustment or one-time adjustment. Like the central bank does, gradual adjustment has smaller negative influence on macroeconomy, but relative smaller effects on dampening prices. (2) Fiscal policy: To finance a temporary investment expenditure through tax could raise outputs and no significant crowding-out effects on private investment. Otherwise, government issues bonds could raise fiscal burden and have negative effects on economy in the long run. (3) Exchange rate policy: The central bank intervenes in appreciation or depreciation of NT dollars just performs the trade-off of economic growth and price level stabilization. Therefore, given the long-run economic development, the central bank should avoid over intervening exchange rate, and let it be decided by market mechanism.