針對加拿大企業在蒙古礦產業直接投資之風險評估

Abstract

As prices for precious metals increase, competition is expected to mount among resource-seeking mining firms, and they will begin turning their attention toward areas with extraction potential around the world. Many of those resources exist in developing countries, with a tremendous amount encased in the geology of Mongolia. Gold mining companies the world over will be assessing the potential for profit in this country, and they will have to account for the risks investing in the country presents. One issue this paper addresses is what these risks are. Otto, after surveying and examining 39 multinational corporations in the mining industry, created a list of priorities when considering an international investment in a resource base. Luiz and Ruplal (2010) subsequently organized this survey into location and ownership factors as articulated by John Dunning (1981) in his expression of the eclectic model. This paper uses this list, reorganized under new headings, to make an assessment of whether the risks inherent in the Mongolian mining sector have been receding through developments in the past five years or not. This paper has focused on Canadian firms and risks particular to their investment money since, apart from China, firms from Canada are the largest investors in Mongolia, and lead the way regarding mining and exploration. This paper seeks to answer whether those risks, as outlined in the literature, have been reduced in the host country in the past five years. To this end, I have reviewed the literature listed above and identified the risk criteria. I then reviewed data and analysis from secondary sources in order to compose a picture of each consideration. The analysis demonstrates that the risks as defined by the literature are indeed not being sufficiently reduced so as to consider Mongolia as improving significantly. The information shows that Mongolia, while certainly improving in some respects, is not necessarily becoming a more transparent, predictable, and sophisticated destination for foreign direct investment targeted at mining. The result of the analysis has implications for Canadian mining companies, which come from among the most sophisticated mining countries in the world, with access to and familiarity with a sophisticated mining cluster, highly trained and capable personnel, and sophisticated government and non-governmental organization programs aimed at enhancing the industry in numerous ways. While these present advantages for companies from Canada, those companies would do well to apply caution when approaching investment opportunities in Mongolia, in order to protect themselves and actively reduce the risks that are inherent and persistent in the Mongolian mining sector, while striving to contribute to long-term stability and profitability.