國防預算規模合理化之研究

Abstract

我國國防預算在民國60年代前佔國家資源泰半，近年則逐漸下降。近來6108億的軍購特別預算爭議顯示，國防預算是一個爭議多、了解少，且國人關切的議題。本研究試圖從威脅程度、區域衝突、軍力密度與經濟發展等四項因素，來探討國防預算應佔GDP 之合理的比例。 本文從選取25個國家，過去15年的資料，並以上述的四項因素，利用群組比校，從與我國國防情境相同的國家，探討出我國國防預算規模佔GDP之合理比例，應介於3.1% ~ 4% 之間；另一方面也藉此四變數建立迴歸統計的模式，探討各變數與因變數之關係。研究發現，威脅程度、軍力密度與國防預算的相關性達顯著水準。變數中之經濟發展則出乎意料之外的呈現負相關。此研究結果可以作為未來有識之士，從事本文相關研究時的參考。 最後，研究發現，世界主要國家國防預算佔GDP比例逐年下降，我國國防預算隨下降趨勢，則考量取下限編列。若考量中共崛起，GDP大幅成長，積極投注其國防預算，威脅日增的影響因素下，我國國防預算規模的合理比例，應調高編列較為適當。

Not only in the early of 60’s had the National Defense Budget been over the half of GDP, but also lately the total amount of 6,108 billion of the special National Defense Budget has drawn the public attention since such issue has become the most controversial, but less understanding topic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the appropriate ratio of National Defense Budget to the GDP by considering the following four factors: threatening degree, area conflict, military strength power and economic strength. This paper compares all the data by the same scenario of the four different factors mentioned above from the hard data of 25 countries in the past 15 years and concludes that the appropriate ratio of our National Defense Budget to GDP is in the range of 3.1% ~ 4%. Also the model of this paper, including the four factors to develop a regression model to predict the reasonable ratio of National Defense Budget, figures out three out of four factors, threatening degree, military strength power and economic growth show significant correlation with the dependant variables. But, the unexpected result of the regression model reveals that the relation between economic growth and the ratio of National Defense Budget is negative correlation. Such result can be part of suggestions to those who are interested in this field. Finally, the study discovers that with decrease of the National Defense Budget for the main countries in the world, the appropriate ratio of National Defense Budget should adopt the lower bound. But considering the rising-up super power of China and its big proportion of GDP investment in the field of military to increase threatening situation, the reasonable scale of our National Defense Budget should be properly adjusted to a higher ratio.