台灣產業價值鏈牛鞭效應之實證

Abstract

在由許多上、中、下游產業組成的產業價值鏈裡，是否存有與供應鏈裡牛鞭效應相同的現象？亦即產業價值鏈裡，是否也有牛鞭效應，當經濟成長率些微的變動，透過產業價值鏈下游，往中、上游反應，造成上游產業產值或訂單更大幅的變動？以台灣2001年產業關聯表，按影響度與感應度，劃分為四大類別，從中找出台灣三大產業價值鏈，分別為半導體、塑化及鋼鐵產業價值鏈。透過迴歸分析及假設檢定，以實證三大產業亦存在牛鞭效應的現象，即面臨總體經濟些微的波動，中、上游產業的產值或訂單變化會更甚於下游產業的產值或訂單變化。此外，股價的表現在此經濟基本理由下也有相同的現象。最後，如果產業價值鏈也有牛鞭效應，成因為何？本研究認為產業關聯性、資本支出與營運槓桿的特性、及價格波動是重要原因，且資本支出占營收的比例越高，所顯示出的牛鞭效應越大。

There exist the bullwhip effects in the supply chain. Does the industry value chain, composed of some down-stream、mid- and up-stream industries, demonstrate the bullwhip effects? Faced the subtle changes in the final demands, which are passed through the downstream industries, the upstream industries show greater variability in revenues or orders. Classifying the 2001 Interdependence Coefficients Table, Taiwan Area, the Republic of China by dispersion and sensitivity into four groups, we get the three most important industry value chains: semiconductor、petrochemical and steel industry value chains. We conduct the empirical analysis of the bullwhip effects in the three industry value chains by regression analyses and hypothesis tests. Faced the subtle changes in the final demand, the upstream industries in the industry value chain demonstrate greater variability in revenues or orders than that in the downstream industries. Based on this economic fundamental, the stock prices exhibit the same patterns. What are the causes of the bullwhip effects in the industry value chain? We analyze to get the following causes: industry interdependence relations、the capex and operating leverage、and the price volatility.