請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/31596
標題: | 水庫操作對於短期洪災與長期缺水風險分析之研究 A Risk Analysis Study: Management of Short-term Flood Events and Long-term Water Needs via Reservoir Operation |
作者: | Wen-Ming Cheng 鄭文明 |
指導教授: | 徐年盛 |
關鍵字: | 風險分析,優化調配模式,水庫防洪操作,蒙地卡羅模擬, Optimization model,Reservoir flood operation,Monte Carlo simulation, |
出版年 : | 2011 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 本研究之目的在於提出一方法及研究分析步驟,以供評估水庫防洪操作在不同之起始水位下,對長期枯水期間缺水及短期颱風期間下游控制點溢流之風險。本研究蒐集歷史颱風期間之水庫洪水入流歷線,藉由蒙地卡羅模擬法合成大量之水庫入流量歷線,放入防洪操作模式模擬得到防洪操作結束之水庫水位,並以此為起始條件由水庫優化調配模式,計算枯水期間之供水情形;颱風期間模擬防洪操作時之水庫放水量,則由倒傳遞類神經模式計算河道下游之水位變化,進而求得間下游控制點颱風期間之最高水位。最後經由風險分析之方法以考量安全邊際之方式,計算得到不同水庫防洪起始下,枯水期間之缺水及颱風期間下游溢流風險。本研究以台灣大漢溪流域石門水庫作為研究區域,研究結果顯示不同之水庫防洪起始水位,對於需水點枯水期缺水風險之變化影響甚大,且缺水風險隨著水庫上限值之增加而明顯降低,但對於颱風期間下游控制點溢流風險之變化影響甚小,且溢流風險隨著水庫上限值之增加而些微升高。由上述分析結果,建立洪災與缺水風險關係圖,以此作為水庫操作者及決策者,制訂洪汛期間水庫最佳起始水位之參考。 This study proposes a methodology to assess the risk of the water shortage during a drought period and the risk of the downstream over-levee flows during a flood period based on the reservoir operation rules for flood control. These rules are defined by upper limits (or flood control storage zone). Through a Monte Carlo simulation, a series of hydrographs are generated to represent the reservoir inflow during a flood period based on historic typhoon events. This series of generated hydrographs are then applied to a reservoir flood operation simulation model. The simulation model calculates the water levels of reservoir at the end of a flood period and the reservoir release during the typhoon events. Reservoir release is used to calculate the water level at downstream control locations for evaluation of a short-term over-levee risk. The ending water level of the reservoir is used as the initial condition for a water distribution optimization model that evaluates drought conditions for long-term water supply. By applying risk analysis, an assessment is made on the risk of both the water shortage during a drought and over-levee flows during flooding seasons. Based on the results of the risk analysis, we evaluate the relationship among upper-limit sets, shortage risk, and over-levee risk and also provide reservoir operation suggestions based on the risk evaluation. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/31596 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-100-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 1.51 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。