中國縣域經濟成長之空間計量分析

Abstract

過去許多學者對於中國區域經濟發展之差異研究，大部分基於全國省級行政單位以及地級行政單位的資料，很少針對中國全部縣級市來進行研究，並且缺乏空間分析的觀點，難以真正反映區域空間差異的變化與機制。 本研究以2000年及2005年中國2338個縣級市作為研究對象，以新經濟地理學的理論為基礎，應用地理資訊系統（GIS）建構空間計量模型探討中國縣域經濟成長之相關因素，建立空間延遲模型及空間誤差模型進行討論年度的經濟成長趨勢。 OLS模型研究得出縣域經濟成長的差異及聚集現象不僅與城市化水準、人口密度、政府財政、居民儲蓄、社會投資與社會消費等社會經濟成因有關，而且與鄰近縣域的經濟成長具有一定的空間依賴性，因此必須將空間因素納入經濟模型中，模型中所選用的社經變項均呈現高度的空間自相關。 加入空間因素的變項後，對整體縣級市的經濟現況具有更高的解釋力以及理論性存在，可以有效地解釋中國縣域經濟成長的聚集性，以及在空間分佈上有更加視覺化的呈現。透過空間模型的建立，證實新經濟地理學可以解釋中國縣域經濟成長的差異、空間擴散現象以及形成的原因。最主要影響經濟成長的變項為第二級產值比重，代表著工業仍是中國經濟成長最主要的來源因素。區域的快速發展與國家政策先從局部性發展逐步朝向全面性發展的方針有關，特別是在近幾年大量的外商進入中國，也因此藉由空間分析途徑將能更瞭解區域性經濟成長率快速提高的原因。

In the past, researches on the difference of Chinese regional economic development scholars conducted was mainly based on the data getting from Province-Level Administrative and City-Level Administrative units, rarely relayed on all County-Level Administrative units. Even worse, scholars at that moment lacked the viewpoint of spatial analysis. Therefore, it’s difficult to truly reflect the change and the mechanism of the regional space difference. This paper takes 2338 counties in 2000 and 2005 as the object of study, based on the theory of New Economic Geography, and uses Geography Information System (GIS) to construct spatial econometric models and discuss the correlation factor of county economic growth. Then establishes space lag model and space error model and carries on the discussion of the economic growth trend. The difference and the conglomeration phenomenon of the county economic growth obtained by OLS model are related with the social and economy factors, such as urbanization rate, population density, government finance, personal savings, social investment, and social consume. Meanwhile, it has a certain spatial dependence with the neighbor county economic growth, and must integrate the spatial factor in the model. In the model, those social and economy factors present the high spatial autocorrelation. After adding up the spatial variable, the overall county economy in present situation has constructed higher explanation strength as well as the theoretical existence. Benefit from this point, the conglomeration of the county economic growth can be effectively explained and the spatial distribution has been visual presented. Through the establishment of the spatial model, we will confirm that the theory of New Economic Geography is able to explain the difference of county economic growth, the spatial diffusion phenomena as well as forms reason. In addition, the major factor which influences economic growth is the proportion of the industrial output value, representing that industry is still the most main original factor of Chinese economic growth. National policy facing the integrity development gradually from the topicality development has contributed a lot to the regional fast development, especially after massive hand of FDI entering China in recent years. In conclusion, we will be able to understand the reason that the regional economic growth rate increase quickly by spatial analysis.