東南亞和中亞國家避險戰略比較(1991-2015)

Abstract

本研究試圖觀察東南亞及中亞區域國家的避險戰略運用，並從中探詢影響避險操作國戰略產出型態的特定因素，再次以區域為比較單位，觀察影響區域國家戰略樣貌之成因。為此，本文選用兩種比較類型，其一為事件性比較，其二則為潛在性；前者有利於查找戰略產出結果與導因之間的對應性，後者則適於觀察國家長期積累而成的避險樣貌。而比較研究之結果，雖最終只能將影響案例國家戰略之因素定調為各國國情特色及其與強權國家間的互動關係，但透過觀察印尼、泰國、哈薩克、烏茲別克等四國之戰略，另可發現兩項通則性的原則，其一為案例國家的對外開放程度高度影響其避險戰略操作完整度；其二則是避險戰略通常需要經過時間的累積逐漸發展成形，就單一事件而言，國家或基於情勢無以避險，或基於意願不願選擇避險。

The purpose of this study is to find out the causal relation in hedging strategy adopted by regional countries in Southeast Asia and Central Asia. Also, observing the mode of their hedging strategy based on regional factors is another focal point of this article. In order to achieve these two objects, two ways of comparison are being used in this study. The Accidental (事件性) comparison helps to find out the causal relation, while the Potential (潛在性) comparison combs out the hedging mode of regional countries. Besides, there are two general principles showing up after inspecting the strategy adoption of Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. First, the degree of openness of a country highly defines the breadth of options the country can operate. And second, the completion of hedging strategy needs to go through a process of accumulation. Even though hedging strategy is the best strategy in most of the incidents, it may not be affordable for regional countries under various situations.