中國在轉型期間的經濟景氣循環分析

Abstract

1978 年中國在歷史的偶然下開啟了改革之路，為世界最大的規模制度變革，在這三十年當中，中國實現了年平均10％左右的持續雙位數增長，這樣一個巨大的經濟體能夠維持長久的高速增長，在經濟史上十分罕見。 本文的研究目的是對中國經濟的通膨率與成長率之間的循環波動現象進行分析，利用Hansen的移動式Chow檢定，我們發現通膨率在1994年前後的二個時期出現了截然不同的走勢，這二個時期的確隱含了結構性轉變。 中國經濟景氣循環中的幾個重要制度性特徵，如軟預算約束和信貸控制都對中國在1994年前的高成長與高通膨現象，提供了良好的解釋；然而，在1994年後，中國大陸中央銀行的獨立自主性日益提高，以及以市場為導向的貨幣政策，則為高成長與低通膨現象做出了說明。

In 1978 China began the road of reform incidentally, and it was the biggest economic achievement in the world. In the past thirty years, China fulfilled at least 10% double digit annual growth every single year. As a gigantic economy, preserving such long-lasting and rapid growth is rarely seen in the history. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the cycles of the inflation rates and economic growth rates in China. By using a modified Chow test developed by Hansen, we found that the relationship between inflation rates and economic growth rates appeared to be entirely different before and after 1994, indicating there was truly a structural break. Several key institutional features of China’s economic growth such as the soft budget constraints and credit control offered an explanation of the high-growth and high-inflation scenario before 1994. However, the development of an independent central bank and a market-oriented monetary policy offered an explanation of the high-growth and low-inflation relationship after 1994.