生技製藥研發計畫之實質選擇權評價

Abstract

生技製藥產業不同於傳統產業，其研發投入成本龐大且開發時程長，加上研發過程中的高失敗率，使獲利具高度不確定性；然而，經理人可藉由決策的調整適時放棄或出售投資計畫，提高計畫價值。傳統評價方法(如淨現值法)無法反應計畫過程中的決策彈性，有鑑於此，本論文採用複合實質選擇權評價概念(compound real option)，建立二元樹模型，將生技製藥階段性研發的特質、放棄及出售的選擇權納入考量，希望有助於未來生技製藥公司進行資本預算評估、計畫授權時的評價。

Biopharmaceutical industry has been regarded as a highly risky business because of the characteristics such as high capital investment, long developing time, and low success rates. During the developing process, however, managers have the flexibility to adjust the investment project. For example, the R&D project can be abandoned or sold to other companies. The managerial flexibilities can contribute to the project value. Traditional valuation methods are unable to fully capture the value created by the biopharmaceutical R&D project because they ignore these opportunities. Therefore, we apply the compound real option concept and present the binomial lattice model with options to abandon and sell, so as to evaluate the R&D project value.