教育對中國經濟成長的影響

Abstract

由於全球競爭加劇，資源的使用需要經過仔細評估，在知識經濟時代裡，擁有高人一等的技術水準代表掌握了經濟動向的命脈。教育投資是否能如預期的提升國家的經濟發展，成為本研究的動機。中國擁有廣大的面積與統一的制度因而成為本研究的對象，將省份視為研究單位，範圍由1983年至2004年，檢視小學入學率是否與經濟成長有相關性。以多元迴歸與追蹤資料兩種計量方式進行研究，除了中國整體資料之外也進行分組研究。 多元迴歸分析法的解釋力不佳，而追蹤資料方法則有高達六成以上的解釋能力。分析追蹤資料的結果顯示，即使教育短期不利於經濟成長，但長期之下教育終將有助於經濟成長。另外，利用中國資料驗證Krueger and Lindahl puzzle，分組後高所得組顯示教育長期下與經濟成長無明顯關聯，而低所得組則顯示長期下教育對經濟成長有助益，與Krueger and Lindahl puzzle結論相同。 整體而言，肯定中國對教育的投資有實質的價值，經濟成長將獲得相對應的報償。

Because of the growing global competition, resources become more and more valuable and every usage of resources must be considered thoroughly. Moreover, knowledge is power, especially in modern time. If you have a higher technology level, then it means that you have a greater power in the era of knowledge-based Economy. However, can the investment in education promote a country’s economic growth as expected? To answer the question is the main purpose of this research. Wide territory and unitary law system are two characteristics of China. We choose China to be the object due to the two characteristics. We take a province as a unit and the range is from 1983 to 2004 to see whether the enrolment rate of elementary school affects the rate of economic growth. The main way we choose is to analyze the panel data. The outcome shows that although the investment has bad impact on the economic development in short term, but it will improve the economic development at last. Therefore, it is advantageous for a government to invest in education according to our analysis.