兩洋一海戰略：中共海軍 1990 年以來發展之分析

Abstract

歷史上，發展強大海軍通常為區域大國崛起的特徵。中共海軍得利於中國大陸總體國力提升，在1990年後快速增長與現代化，並與國家所追求的「利益邊疆」同步向外拓展。現今的主要活動範圍已經擴及「印度太平洋」地區，而且在不同的海域有相異的運作手段。本文期望對此現象建構統一性的論述，俾以清楚解讀當今中共海軍戰略的目的與意涵。 「兩洋一海」戰略是一個觀察、預測中共海軍未來發展的一個說法。它站在現實主義的立場，經由分析1990年以來中共海軍發展，參證「近海防禦」戰略、「積極防禦」指導、高希可夫的影響，以及民族主義等內在因素，區分南海、西太平洋、印度洋三個海域，從地理條件制約、區域軍力對比、國際環境影響等外在因素，運用古典、現代海權理論交互論證所歸納出的一個研究發現。 精簡而言「兩洋一海」戰略：為實現中國海洋強國地位，突破美國圍堵，爭取亞洲霸權之目的。中國大陸在南海運用「內海化」手段與「中央位置」地理條件，將南海作為「拓展國家利益邊疆」投射基點；向東以軍事演訓的威懾手段與美國在西太平洋「爭霸」，向西以實質存在與海外基地建設的權力平衡，分享印度在印度洋的制海權，藉此方式突破美國在「印度太平洋」海域的圍堵勢力，並且尋求中共海軍真正能成為遠洋海軍的擅場——印度洋。

Historically, development of naval power is a key feature of a rising regional power. Benefited from the riseing in China’s national power, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been able to achieve rapid growth and modernization and is seeking expansion of influence in congruent with China’s “nation’s interests borderland” policy. In recent years, main activities of the PLAN has reached the 'Indio-Pacific' area, and there are different operation strategies in different regions. This current paper aims to construct a clear overview of this new development and provide a mean to better decipher the intent and goals of the PLAN strategy. “Two-Ocean One-Sea” is a strategic theory used to monitor and assess the future development of PLAN in Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea, It is based on analysis of historical activities of PLAN since 1990 and in the context of classical and modern sea power theory. Additional factors, such as China’s 'nearsea defense' strategy, 'active defense' guidance, the influence of Admiral Gorshkov, rising Chinese nationalism, and external factor, such as Geographical conditions, regional military competition, and international environmental are evaluated as part of the current observation. Concisely speaking, the “Two-Ocean One-Sea” Strategy describes China’s aspiration to strength its position as a true ocean power, to breakthrough US’ containment, and to consolidate its leadership position in Asia. China is working toward rationalize South China Sea to be part of its “national water.” The intent is to use the “middle position” of South China Sea as a springboard for further projecting its “nation’s interests borderland” strategy. To the east of South China Sea, in the Western Pacific Ocean sphere, China contends with the US by ever expanding its area of military exercise deterrence. To the west of South China Sea, in the Indian Ocean sphere, China counterbalances US influence by the mean of “Power Balance”, which includes the negotiating establishment of naval bases in foreign countries and the demonstration military essential presence. Ultimately the goal is to establish PLAN as the dominant Blue water navy in the Indian Ocean.