不確定下半導體測試產業之最適投資決策研究

Abstract

產業在面臨重大的投資決策時，由於投資案本身需要投入龐大的資金成本，而且具有不可逆性，再加上產業需求的波動性所帶來的不確定性風險，因此策略投資決策就必須要有適當的決策分析方法，來降低風險以及提高管理的彈性。在本篇的研究探討是半導體測試產業在面臨需求不確定的情況下，如何做最適當的投資決策，以及如何運用等待選擇權的管理彈性來降低風險。 半導體測試產業需要大量的固定資本投資，產業間彼此的差異性不大，廠商之間競爭是以成本為主，多角化的產業鏈垂直整合比較不容易，產業的需求波動性與半導體產業之景氣有正相關，因此投資的最佳決策模型包括經濟規模以降低成本的決策模型，或是等待的實質選擇權決策模型等決定了廠商最大的獲利來源。除了投資決策之外，適當的管理彈性來主動規避風險也是廠商提升競爭力的方法，包括應用外包，內包，標準化，改變產業結構或是產業策略結盟都是提升管理彈性的方法。 本研究由實質選擇權的角度出發，考量在需求變動不確定的環境之下，運用摸擬的方式，分析不同的策略投資決策在彈性的投資時點所產生的價值，以及如何增進管理彈性的價值，作為管理者決策的依據。並且由決策的模型裏面，分析各種產業變數來了解半導體測試產業的關鍵控制因素，做為管理的優先次序。

The industry, while making the great investment decision, needed putting into the huge fund cost. Also the investment has irreversibility and market demand fluctuation induced the uncertainty and risk, so there must be proper decision analytical methods in the investment decision process to reduce the risk and improving managerial flexibility. This paper is probed into the semiconductor testing industry optimized investment decision making under uncertain market conditions and how to use the wait real option of managerial flexibility to reduce the risk. The semiconductor testing industry highly involved the capital investment and there is no mutual operation difference neither the vertical integration to maximize the value chain positioning but as the cost competition. The market condition is highly correlated to semiconductor industry volatility so the best investment decision model includes economic scale to lower the cost or wait real option to optimize the investment timing to capture the maximized profit. Besides the investment decision, proper managerial flexibility can reduce risk actively to enhance the competition including outsourcing, in-sourcing, standardization, restructure the industry value chain or alliance with partners. This research is base on real option to use the simulation approach by considering the market demand volatility results the value of different investment decisions with managerial flexibility, and provides the manager actively flexible management benefit. From the decision making model also analyzing different variables and scenarios as management priority.