DRAM產業景氣循環競爭策略

Abstract

過去的四十年中，先進的電腦科技大幅改善了我們的生活。而整個高科技業背後重要的驅動力量─半導體產業，則是個技術與資本高度密集的產業，而這趨勢在DRAM產業更是尤其嚴重。DRAM產業發展至今，經歷多次市場起伏，素有「狠狠賺一年，準備賠三年」的戲稱。而這些產業的不景氣時期卻也可能是個後進廠商的策略創新期。本論文首先透過S-C-P產業分析模型檢視DRAM產業的特性，再檢視不同時期產業新進者的策略，之後試圖從廠商的財務數據中，歸納出較好產業循環投資策略。本論文最後再根據以上分析，對DRAM與相似產業(例如LED, TFT-LCD)的未來做出建議。

In the past four decades, computer technology greatly changed our life style. The driving force of these technologies is the highly technology and capital concentrated semiconductor industry. These characteristics, along with some other factors, resulted in a large volatility of the demand and supply gap. These gaps and downturns could sometime be a good timing for strategic innovation. DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) served as a buffer and storage in most of computer, electronic devices, and tablet PCs. Similar to any other semiconductor business, the manufacturing of DRAM requires multiple process and issues such as yield-rate, utilization rate, process technology and tech-nodes are significantly essential to cost structures in such competitive industry. This thesis would first analysis DRAM industry with S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance) model and entry strategy of new entrants. Then we would examine effective strategies for market new comers during downturns. Last but not the least; we would further make suggestions to the future market of DRAM and similar industries such as LED and TFT-LCD.