大樂透公益彩券銷售額研究

Abstract

彩券業務在全球風起雲湧，產業年銷售量已超過美金二千億元，每個市井小民的夢想清單，中頭獎是內心深處最企盼翻身的超級夢想。我國政府發行公益彩券業務，除了為國籌措基金，藉以創造更大的公共利益，亦為身心障礙與弱勢族群創造就業機會，「投注希望，分享愛，一張彩券在手，希望無窮」。 由於大樂透的中獎機率極低，民眾總想以小博大，本研究將利用銷售額作為被解釋變數，以頭獎獎金、其他獎中獎獎金、景氣分數及頭獎加碼與否，做為解釋變數，經迴歸分析實證發現，個別項檢定中”頭獎獎金”及”其他獎獎金”兩個變數檢定結果顯著，個別項檢定中”景氣分數”及”頭獎額外加碼”兩個變數檢定結果不顯著。表示獎金之高低為決定銷售額主要因素，景氣變動和額外加碼等影響並不顯著。累積之頭獎獎金，或其他獎項之獎金之高低，方為增加銷售額買氣之結果。

Lottery industry is now a surging global business, annual sales have reached over USD 200 billion in world wide market. The hope of winning the first prize to support his/her super dream of emancipation from framed life becomes the deepest desire of ordinary public citizens. In addition to raising funds to meet the country’s financial budget and the greater public interest, Taiwan government is also creating job opportunities for the disadvantaged groups. The value of “Dream. Fun. Charity” gives everyone the infinite hope and fulfills all our dreams.

Given the extreme low probability of lottery winning, people always dream to win big with small amount of money invested. This research will utilize sales volume as the “Explained variable”; and the first prize money, other awards prize money, the economy scores and prize overweight or not, as “Explanatory variables”. Evidence is found by regression analysis that, during the individual test, results of the two variables' first prize money' and 'other awards prize money' are significant; while that of the other two variables 'economy score ' and “prize overweight' are not. The results also support that prize money is the major factor determining sales volume; while impact of economy score and prize overweight to sales volume are not significant. Whereas, “Accumulation of amount for first prize” and “Size of amount for other awards” are key factors to increase sales volume.