企業年報文字資訊影響資金成本、股價報酬波動性與分析師盈餘預測準確度之研究

Abstract

隨著社會各界對於公司經營透明度的要求日益提高，企業年報被要求提供的資訊也日益增多。除了會計財務數字的揭露外，企業年報中文字資訊之重要性日漸受到重視。相對於會計財務數字，年報中的文字資訊往往更具未來導向，從而提供了使用者更為攸關的決策資訊。 本研究以台灣市場中所有上市、上櫃公司自民國八十八年至民國九十七年共十年的年報為樣本，分析企業年報中文字資訊所傳達之風險與不確定性對公司未來資金成本、股價報酬波動性、以及分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響。 研究結果顯示，當企業年報中文字資訊愈傾向正面態度時，公司未來的資金成本愈低。就企業未來股價報酬波動性而言，企業年報中文字資訊所呈現之正、負面態度對其並無顯著相關；然而，當文字資訊的不確定程度愈高時，公司的股價報酬波動性較大。同時，企業年報中文字資訊的不確定程度越高，分析師對公司之盈餘預測誤差越大，準確度愈低。

As the demand on corporate transparency increases, annual reports are required to disclose more information. In addition to quantitative accounting information, qualitative narrative information contained in annual reports has drawn increasing attention. Presumably, narrative information is more future oriented, thus can provide users more decision relevant information. This study uses content analysis to measure the sentiment and uncertainty revealed by narrative information contained in annual reports, and investigates their relationships with cost of capital, stock return volatility, and analyst forecast accuracy. The data set includes all the annual reports published by all the listed company between years 1999 and 2008. The results show that when a company’ annual report reveals more positive sentiment, its cost of capital is lower. The sentiment and stock return volatility have no significant relationship. However, when the narrative information contains higher uncertainty, the future stock returns volatility is also higher. Finally, when the uncertainty is higher, analyst forecast accuracy is lower.