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標題: | 搜尋臺灣新興政黨的群眾基礎:以時代力量為例 The Mass Bases of New Power Party in Taiwan |
作者: | Chun-Hung Ko 柯俊宏 |
指導教授: | 張佑宗 |
關鍵字: | 時代力量,天然獨,首投族,統獨立場,族群認同, New Power Party (NPP),Natural-Independency,Virgin voter,the ideology of unification and independence (IUI),Ethnic identity, |
出版年 : | 2018 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本文以TEDS 2016的結果,針對2016年立委選舉,以各種變數進行分析,進而推論「時代力量」的群眾基礎。研究結果發現,「時代力量」選民大部分是北部高學歷之青壯閩南男性,並工作於私部門。就政治態度而言,「時代力量」大部分群眾認同是臺灣人,統獨立場偏向獨立,不支持九二共識,政治知識普通,認同民進黨,而政黨認同強度普通。在經濟投票感受方面,無論前瞻或是回顧大多認為差不多。政治傳播方面,電視、廣播、報紙及網路選舉新聞接觸度均是低度注意。
「時代力量」選民大部份來自原民進黨認同者,其次是首投族。然而,「時代力量」選民結構與民進黨並非完全相似,在年齡、教育程度、職業、政治知識、政黨認同強度及網路選舉新聞接觸度均與民進黨不相似。另外,以天然獨區分政治世代,在天然獨時代方面,「時代力量」的天然獨世代群眾,大部分偏向獨立,而非「時代力量」之天然獨世代卻大部分不偏向獨立。 根據「二元勝算對數模型」驗證,以是否投票予「時代力量」為依變數,單一認同臺灣人、偏向獨立者、男性、教育程度大學及以上比較容易成為「時代力量」選民;另外,以首投族區分政治世代,是否為首投族與投票予「時代力量」間並無顯著關聯,此與一般大眾認知不同。 結合前述,「時代力量」在統獨光譜上,屬於急獨之政黨,較容易吸引偏獨群眾。而根據「時代力量」2016年後所提議題,主要是社會福利,也因此與執政之民進黨漸行漸遠,其性質似乎屬於中間偏左之政黨,可吸引關注社會議題的左派群眾。「時代力量」成功經驗,其群眾基礎之分布,將有利於新興政黨的推展之參考。 In this thesis, we study the composition and foundation of New Power Party (NPP), and we focus on the legislator election in 2016 and analyze with different parameters through the results of TEDS2016. We find that the supporters of NPP mainly consisted of the young and highly educated adulthood and they usually belong to Southern Min and work for privately owned enterprises. For political attitude, the supporters usually think they are Taiwanese, and their ideology of unification and independence (IUI) bias towards independence and not support the 1992 consensus. Their knowledge about politics is mediocre, and they give recognition to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but the degree is not strong. On the theory of economic voting, no matter considering the previous or the future parts, they think there is no significant difference. On the political communication, it seems that they pay less attention to the TV, broadcast, newspaper and internet news. The supporters of NPP are mainly composed of the original supporters of DPP and minor the virgin voters. However, the construction of the supporters of NPP is not similar to the construction of the supporters of DPP on various fields, inclusive of age, education level, occupation, political knowledge, party recognition and the extent of contact with internet news of election. Besides, considering the generation of Natural-Independency, the supporters of NPP in this generation mainly prefer independence, but the non-supporters do not. Based on binary logit analysis, we treat the willingness of voting for NPP as the variable and we find that there are some remarkable features related to the supporters of NPP. They are the single-recognition for Taiwan, independency-preference, undergraduate-educated level and male. Besides, there is no clear relation between the virgin voters and the supporters of NPP, and this is different from popular cognition. To sum up, NPP is an urgent-independency party and they attract the people with independency-preference. Moreover, based on the issues they proposed in the legislature, we find they focused on the social welfare and different from the main issues followed by the DPP, and hence they grew further apart. NPP can be considered a little left-wing party, so they can appeal to those who are democrats and radicals. The successful experience of NPP and the distribution of the supporters can be the reference for new and developing parties for their growing up. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22067 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201802697 |
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顯示於系所單位: | 政治學系 |
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