冷戰後東南亞地區美中競逐的分析：國際體系層級秩序的形成、建構與轉變

Abstract

本文問題意識在於了解美中兩國冷戰後在東南亞地區的競逐關係。冷戰後美國挾著豐沛的權力資源在全球開展霸業，中國則以持續的經濟成長加上對周邊國家關係的逐步改善，成長為東亞地區甚至全球範圍內的大國。而東南亞地區在地緣上位處中美接壤，且位居太平洋上重要的戰略要道，豐富的自然資源、眾多的人口及廣大市場，這些因素都是東南亞地區成為美中白熱化競爭區域的原因。傳統上，全球性的霸權與區域崛起強權的關係，總會聯想到權力轉移理論所提及的爭霸戰爭。然實際觀察雙方互動，美中因權力結構差距縮小引發的緊張關係，並未導引雙方發生爭霸戰爭，而是轉為在東南亞地區競逐影響力及利於自身的層級秩序。因此，本文的核心關懷在於冷戰後美中於東南亞地區競逐秩序領導權的故事樣貌，希望可以回答美中為何在東南亞展開競逐、雙方競逐秩序的手段與成效為何，以及對於東南亞區域秩序造成的影響。 本文主要研究發現有三：(1)隨著雙方權力差距縮小，且縮小速度加快，雙方會更傾向積極競爭心態，而具體就呈現在雙方領導人的對東南亞政策演變上越發積極；(2)雙方差距縮小過程中出現霸業鬆脫的重要事件，讓雙方領導人更為清楚意識到權力結構的改變，而形成互動傾向及對東南亞政策轉變的節點；(3)對東南亞層級秩序來說，在1990年代的單極霸權秩序經過2000年代後的美中競逐而產生秩序位移，逐漸變成雙方的秩序競爭，區域層級秩序也漸由原先相對穩固的單極霸業結構，慢慢轉變為美中都是相對鬆散的雙行霸業結構。本文認為美國霸業在危機中受到蝕化，雖然試圖施展治理權威重新鞏固其霸業，但與日漸蓬勃的東協中心性產生衝突，而且也無法回應東協國家的發展需求，而中國便趁隙逐步建立對東南亞國家的影響力與權威關係，並建構功能取代性的層級秩序，這便是冷戰後雙方在東南亞地區展開秩序競逐的完整圖像。

The problematic of this thesis is about the U.S.-PRC Competition in Southeast Asia after Cold War. Southeast Asia is a flourish region with abundant resources and important water routes. The U.S. and the PRC are the two most competitive great powers competing for hegemonic status and leadership in this region. Hegemon-related studies in IR have paid much attention on the relative decline and uprising of powers, which has constituted the perspective that uneven material power growth will cause the hegemonic wars, and lead to the replacement for old hegemon. However, it cannot properly explain the situation nowadays that power transition and the U.S.-PRC competition without the replacement of hegemon. Therefore, this thesis tries to demonstrate the role and effect of authority, arguing that the shifting of hegemonic power is the transition of governance authority, which refers not only to the possessing of relative material power superiority, but also to the consent of subordinate states, and the legitimate ground of hegemonic ruling as well. There are three main research findings. Firstly, the competition in Southeast Asia between the U.S. and the PRC becomes increasingly intense as the material power gap getting closer. Secondly, from 1990-2016, several crises eroded the hegemony basis of the U.S., transforming the Southeast Asia regional order gradually. Thirdly, the U.S. relies on its strong material resources as well as the institutions left from Cold War era, maintaining its advantageous hierarchical order in this region. On the other hand, the PRC utilizes its outstanding economic resources to develop and deepen the relationships with Southeast Asian countries, transforming its economic power into governance authority and actual influence, and constructing its own hierarchical structure in this area. The ebb and flow of these two structures after Cold War shapes a special two-peak hierarchical order in Southeast Asia.