國際聯繫對競爭式威權國家民主化進程的影響：以 ICEWS 資料庫分析（1995～2018）

Abstract

冷戰後興起的競爭式威權國家在各自的民主化上有著不同的發展。冷戰結束後，這些國家面對國際社會上西方國家的巨大影響力，西方國家與他們的聯繫成為競爭式威權國家自身民主化最重要的外部因素，在這樣的壓力下，獨裁者和專制政府紛紛進入民主轉型的進程。然而，國際情勢今非昔比，西方國家不再是「鎮上唯一的遊戲」，全球民主化也受到了挑戰。 專制超級大國的快速崛起、成長和西方國家的民主倒退帶給專制主義重回競爭式威權國家的危機。來自西方的民主推動（Democracy Promotion）和來自專制大國的威權擴散（Autocracy Diffusion）儼然成為當今國際對抗的其中一環。這些有別於冷戰結束初期的國際聯繫是否又會對競爭式威權國家的民主化產生新的影響？本研究透過ICEWS資料庫（Integrated Crisis Early Warning System）及其採用的CAMEO行為量表（Conflict and Mediation Event Observations）來分析競爭式威權國家與主要國際聯繫來源國之間的國際聯繫，提供研究國際聯繫對競爭式威權國家民主化影響的新的經驗證據。研究結果表明，與西方聯繫越多的競爭式威權國家，對其自身的民主化帶來越正向影響；相反的，專制聯繫對該國越強大，競爭式威權國家面臨的民主倒退就越嚴重。

The democratization of competitive authoritarian states in the post-Cold War era has evolved in different ways since then. At the end of the Cold War, they were confronted with the tremendous influence of the western countries in the international community, and their linkages to the West became the most important external factor in their own democratization, as dictators and authoritarian governments made their way into the process of democratic transition. Today, however, the international environment is no longer the same as it was before, western countries aren’t the “only game in the town” anymore, and democracy has been challenged. The rapid growth of authoritarian superpowers and the regression of western democracy have created a crisis of return to authoritarianism for competitive authoritarian states. Today, the promotion of democracy and the diffusion of autocracy have become part of the international confrontation. Do these new international linkages impact the democratization of competitive authoritarianisms? By analyzing the ICEWS database (Integrated Crisis Early Warning System) with the CAMEO scoring system (Conflict and Mediation Event Observations) between competitive authoritarianisms and sources countries, I provide new empirical evidence to the impact of international linkages on the democratization of competitive authoritarian states. The finding suggests that the more positive the Western linkages to competitive authoritarian states are, the more likely they will lead to democratization; on the contrary, the stronger the Autocratic linkages are, the more severe the democratic regressions are in these competitive authoritarian states.