香港聯繫匯率面對的挑戰與可持續性研究

Abstract

自 2008 年以來，關於香港的聯繫匯率制應該持續釘住美元或是實行靈活的匯率制度在國際上再次引起激烈爭論，到 2019 年因香港多次觸發弱方兌換保證更是達到高峰。源於聯繫匯率制的內在穩定機制因經常遭受國外資金衝擊與干擾，而暫時失靈由此可能導致的龐大經濟成本，使得香港聯繫匯率制 度處於危機之中。 聯繫匯率制度為貨幣局制度的衍生。本文以貨幣發行局制度的綜合運用以及經驗檢驗，作為香港聯繫匯率的理論研究補充。以 2008 年後香港聯繫匯率的三面向挑戰:匯率制度的內在不穩定、經濟結構的矛盾以及外在衝擊的不 確定性，去頗析香港聯繫匯率的可持續性，進而探討香港聯繫匯率制度的可能路徑走向。 本研究發現有下:其一，聯繫匯率的風險，主要源於實行聯繫匯率制度的香 港跟掛鉤貨幣國的經濟週期不一致而產生的矛盾。其二，相對於香港經濟因素對聯繫匯率制度的衝擊，更令人憂心的是政治因素所帶來的騷動。其三，即使聯繫匯率制度倍受爭論。但香港身為小型自由開放經濟體，聯繫匯率制度無疑是香港最適的選擇。最後，人民幣在香港經濟及政治角度逐漸成為替代美元的選擇，但由於條件尚不成熟，目前較適合的辦法是維持現狀，港元繼續與美元掛勾。

Since 2008, whether Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system should continue to be pegged to the US dollar or implement a flexible exchange rate system, which has once again aroused fierce international debate. In 2019, weak foreign exchange guarantees occurred frequently in Hong Kong, which reached the historical peak. The internal stability mechanism derived from the linked exchange rate system often suffers from foreign capital shocks and disturbances. The continual temporary failures of the system may result in huge economic costs, which has caused Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system to be in crisis. The linked exchange rate system is a derivative of the currency board system. This article would comprehensively examine the experiences and the implementation of currency board system, and hope to supplement the theoretical research on Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. There’re three facets of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate after 2008: the inherent instability of the exchange rate system; the contradictions of the economic structure; and the uncertainty of external shocks. This article would further analyze the sustainability of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system, including the possible trend of the future. What this study found could be concluded as the followings: First, the risk of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rates system mainly stems from the conflicts between the implementation strategy of the system and the economic cycles of the pegged currency countries. Second, the main factor which impacts Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system is not by economics, but by the commotions of the political factors. Third, though the linked exchange rate system has been questioned, Hong Kong as a small, open and free economy, the system is undoubtedly still the most suitable choice. Finally, the RMB has gradually become an alternative pegged currency to the US dollar in Hong Kong's, due to its economic and political perspectives. However, because of the immature conditions, the appropriate method is to maintain the status quo, and the Hong Kong dollar should continue to be pegged to the US dollar.