三隻小豬哪裡來? 2012年總統選舉蔡英文個人捐獻的空間分析─兼論馬英九之個人捐獻

Abstract

2004年實施《政治獻金法》後，人民可以透過政治獻金支持特定的政黨或候選人。2012年總統大選時，在臺南的造勢晚會上，兩歲半的三胞胎將三個小豬撲滿送給蔡英文，晚會後，蔡英文競選總部接到監察院的電話，表明要調查蔡英文收受未成年人捐獻有無違反政治獻金法，民進黨反制監察院未保持行政中立，並且充分運用了三隻小豬議題，募得高額個人捐獻，同時也炒熱當時民進黨的選情聲勢，雖然最後仍以失敗告終，但也讓人對於「三隻小豬」的魅力感到好奇。本研究將透過空間的探索分析，探究蔡英文個人捐獻背後的人口結構及經社背景之組成。首先，使用傳統迴歸模型進行分析，採用臺灣349個地理單元的個人捐獻金額作為依變數；加入地區屬性變數與空間變數當作自變數，包括都市化程度、所得、人口結構、族群分布、教育程度、產業結構，以及當地的政治生態等。再者，使用空間落遲模型、空間誤差模型與一般化空間模型，探討鄰近效應及空間誤差所造成的空間效應。接著，比較蔡英文與馬英九的個人捐獻，兩模型的可解釋百分比差異甚大，蔡英文的個人捐獻可以被自變數解釋的百分比遠高於馬英九，箇中原因值得探究。最後，研究也發現個人捐獻與實際的獲票率並不相符，值得後續進一步探討。

Through the “Political Contributions Law” implemented in 2004, the public is able to support specific political parties or candidates through political donations. During Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election, three two and a half year old triplets gave three piggy banks as a donation to Tsai Ing-wen during a Tainan campaign rally. After the campaign rally, Tsai Ing-wen’s campaign headquarters received a call from The Control Yuan’s declaring an investigation into whether Tsai Ing-wen violated the “Political Contributions Law” by accepting political donations from minors. The Democratic Progressive Party countered by admonishing The Control Yuan for violating administrative neutrality. Furthermore, the Democratic Progressive Party was able to use the “Piggy Banks” issue to increase the momentum of their ongoing election campaign, raising large amounts of individual political donations as a result. Although the Democratic Progressive Party failed to win the presidential election in 2012, people were curious about the charm of “Piggy Banks”. The study uses exploratory spatial data analysis to probe the population structure, social positions and economic status of individual political donations to Tsai Ing-wen. An initial analysis is performed via Ordinary Least Squares, adopting individual political donations from Taiwan’s 349 geographic units as dependent variables, and adding regional attribute variables and spatial variables as independent variables, including the urbanization degree, the income, the population structure, the ethic distribution, the education level, the industrial structure, and the political ecology in local areas, and so forth. The study further uses Spatial Lag Model, Spatial Error Model, and General Spatial Model to discuss the spatial effects caused by proximity effect and spatial error. Moreover, this research compares Tsai Ing-wen’s individual political donations with Ma Ying-jeou’s. The results show a vast difference of the R-squared values between the two models and that Tsai Ing-wen’s individual political donations can be far explained by the independent variables than Ma Ying-jeou’s. Last but not least, the research discovers that individual political donations do not correspond to voting rates, which deserves further exploration.