考量企業生命週期後臺灣文化創意產業之企業評價

Abstract

本研究以2015年我國上櫃文創業公司為對象，考量其所處生命週期階段，並以會計基礎評價模型模擬個別公司之股權價值，探討各階段之評價誤差。本文援引 Anthony and Ramesh (1992)的方法，選定收入成長、股利、研發費用、資本支出與公司成立年數作為生命週期的判斷因子，將樣本公司分為成長期、成熟期與衰退期三個群集，顯示隨生命週期由年輕至衰老，股利支出遞增、研發與資本支出遞減、收入成長率的平均值也在衰退期時達到最低。之後，本文使用 Ohlson (1995)的異常盈餘評價模式，分別檢視考量生命週期群集的評價誤差值。結果發現，於成長期階段的文創公司評價誤差最小，經由敏感性分析，可達到合理預測的範圍。

The purpose of this paper is to investigate business life cycle and equity value of Taiwan’s cultural and creative industry in 2015. This study first divides samples into various life cycle portfolios based on methods developed by Anthony and Ramesh (1992). Consistent with the previous research, the finding shows that as business life cycle moves from growth to decline stage, dividend payout ratio increases, R&D and capital expenditure decrease, and average sales growth rate falls to the lowest rate in the decline stage. This research then adopts Ohlson (1995) valuation model to evaluate each company’s equity value. Results suggest that cultural and creative companies in growth stage have the most accurate valuation and can reach the standard of reasonable forecasting.