房屋需求與使用者成本分析-以台北市為例

Abstract

本研究探討台北市各區持有房屋使用者成本與房屋需求議題，房價資料來自內政部地政司及實價登錄服務網，房屋交易量資料來自台北市地政雲，所得資料來自財政部財稅資料中心。實證結果顯示，台北市各區持有房屋的使用者成本呈逐年下滑情形，主因為利息成本下滑與預期資本利得率高漲兩因素。另外，結果顯示，中山區、信義區、大安區、松山區、中正區、文山區為房價受到高估之區域。 此外，本研究採用動態追蹤資料系統GMM 模型估計房屋需求，得到台北市自有房屋的上期房屋交易量彈性0.111、所得彈性0.780、稅後實質房貸利率彈性-0.118、預期房價成長率彈性1.256，但實質房貸利率變數在此模型估計下不具統計顯著性。

This paper tries to discuss the issues on the user cost and demand of housing in the region of Taipei City. We use housing price data from the department of land administration, Ministry of the Interior and an actual price registration website, using housing transaction volumes from Taipei’s land cloud and using individual income information from Fiscal Information Agency, Ministry Finance. Our results indicate that the user cost of housing in Taipei City decline year by year due to the lower interest rate cost and higher expected capital gain. In addition, we find that Zhongshan district、Xinyi district、Da’an district、Songshan district、Zhongzheng district and Wenshan district are those areas whose housing price are probably overvalued in Taipei City. This paper also uses dynamic panel data system GMM model to estimate the housing demand in Taipei City. Our results indicate that in Taipei City, the last period house transaction volume elasticity is 0.111、income elasticity of housing is 0.780、price elasticity of housing is -1.131、interest rate elasticity of housing is 0.118 and expected growth rate of housing price elasticity is 1.256; however, the interest rate variable didn’t have statistical significance in dynamic panel data system GMM model.