以重力模型分析南韓簽署FTA對臺灣出口之影響

Abstract

本研究採用重力模型（The Gravity Model）作為理論架構，分析南韓簽署自由貿易協定（Free Trade Agreement，FTA）對臺灣出口之影響，設定南韓為簽署多個FTA的實驗組、臺灣為未簽署FTA的對照組。利用2001年至2015年期間南韓與臺灣的總體經濟資料進行實證分析，估計南韓簽署此9個FTA相較於臺灣皆未簽署，對於兩國之出口總額倍數所造成的影響，進而探討貿易轉移效果(Trade Diversion Effect)。 實證結果發現南韓簽署該9個FTA相較於臺灣皆未簽署，長期而言平均可使兩國之出口總額倍數擴大達44.77%，對臺灣明顯存在貿易移轉效果。依照結果可推論若臺灣能與經濟高度發展的國家簽署FTA，不僅能減緩南韓簽署FTA對臺灣所造成之貿易移轉效果，並且將有助於臺灣出口貿易的提升。

This study applies the gravity model as the theoretical framework to analyze the South Korean free trade agreements’s (FTAs) impact on Taiwan’s export. In this paper, South Korea is set as a signing number of FTAs within experimental group, while Taiwan is positioned in the control group with no FTA signed. By utilizing the macroeconomic data of South Korea and Taiwan from 2001 to 2015 , this paper will firstly reveal how the differences in exports multiplier between two countries are affected by these signed nine FTAs and then assess the trade diversion effect caused accordingly. The empirical results indicate that in the long-term these agreements lead to a 44.77% difference in export multiplier between South Korea and Taiwan. This proves the existence of the trade diversion effect for Taiwan. Based on the result, we can conclude that by signing FTAs with the advanced economies, it will not only mitigate the impact caused by trade diversion effect from South Korea but also boost Taiwan's export.