影響總統施政民意因素在重大事件中之探討

Abstract

民主國家以民為本，施政評價是解釋執政者表現的重要依據，台灣歷來關於施政評價的研究有限，更少有針對重大事件影響的分析，因此本研究聚焦於不同民眾在重大社會事件發生時，對總統施政民意之影響，涵蓋民生、外交、兩岸與司法等重大事件。 本研究以實證研究途徑、次級資料研究法，研究2008年到2015年期間，TVBS民調中心公布之總統施政滿意度、信任度與未來信心度之資料數據。以人口變項做為影響總統施政滿意度、信任度與未來信心度的解釋變數。研究範圍涵蓋馬英九任內的四大事件：美牛（民生）事件、仁誼（外交）事件、林益世（司法）事件、服貿（兩岸）事件。 透過多元迴歸分析，研究發現在四大事件中，影響評價的因素，選民的政黨和教育程度對於總統施政評價有較高顯著的影響。在四大事件的「滿意度」都有顯著差異的變數是「教育程度」，皆為教育程度越高的民眾，越不滿意總統施政。而在四大事件的「信任度」皆有顯著差異的變數則是「政黨」，皆為泛藍政黨比其他政黨更信任總統。並分析不同事件的顯著性，推測其成因，讓領導者未來施政有參酌方向，使民之所欲，能真正常在其心。

People are the basis of a country. The presidential approval rating reflects people’s perception toward the president’s performance. Research on presidential approval rating is a relatively new topic in Taiwan, therefore leads to inadequate research on major events. The target of this research is to investigate comparisons of the factors influence president’s approval rating among major events, including domestic, diplomatic, judicial and cross-straits relationship. By adopting empirical study and secondary research methodology, the purpose of this study is to analyze factors related to presidential approval ratings, trust and confidence in the future, according to poll results published by Television Broadcasts Satellite (TVBS) network between 2008 and 2015. The independent variable is demographic variable, as well as the dependent variables is in satisfaction, trust and confidence in the future. The scope of this research includes the United States beef imported to Taiwan (domestic event), the project benevolence and friendship (diplomatic event), ex-Cabinet official indicated for corruption (judicial event), and cross-strait agreement on trade in services (cross-straits relationship event). Through the method of multiple regressions, the study finds that the socio-demographic variables of party identification and education level have significant influence on presidential approval ratings in four major events. People with higher education are more dissatisfied with the president. The Pan-Blue Coalition believes in president much firmly than other coalition. The study finding may serve as a guide for further research on execution and research on approval rating.