以重力模型分析祕魯與APEC亞洲會員國之葡萄貿易

Abstract

This study assesses the export of fresh grape from Peru to its ten major importers in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in the Asian region during 2003-2012, using a gravity model. The situation of the fresh grape industry in Peru and the world is revised taking in account different variables relevant in the gravity equation; such as, GDP of Peru and APEC countries, distance between countries, tariffs, free trade agreements (FTAs) and plantations in the APEC countries. The econometric methodology used in this study controls for zero trades among countries; specifically for the cases of China, South-Korea and Taiwan and heteroskedasticity by using PPML estimator at a 6 level Harmonized System (HS) 6-digit data 080610 fresh grapes. Results suggest that increases of the GDP of Peru by 1% increases exports by 2.3%; on the other hand, tariffs imposed to Peru by 1% to reduce its exports by 10.9%.